Vaccination
Field Vaccine Efficacy
Notation: EPI -Epidemic Index; FVE - Field Vaccine Efficacy.
FVE: New results.
19 March 2021.
Now we present several results on Field Vaccine Efficacy based on comparisons of epidemic waves.
Result 1: UK. Comparison of 2 waves via daily new Covid cases. FVE=0.63
Wave 1: 17 April (peak) - 23 June 2020.
Wave 2: 9 January (peak) - 18 March 2021.
Result 2: USA. Comparison of 2 waves via daily new death Covid cases. FVE=0.69
Wave 1: 17 April - 20 June 2020
Wave 2: 12 January - 16 March 2021.
UK R number/EPI graphs
FVE for the selected countries
28 February 2021
20 February 2021
14 February 2021
Further analysis of R/EPI numbers (Israel, UAE, UK and USA) for 14 Jan - 12 Feb 2021 supports that Field Vaccine Efficacy/FVE is around 0.7.
02 February 2021
Preliminary analysis of R/EPI numbers (Israel, UAE, UK and USA) for 15-29 Jan 2021 shows that the field vaccine efficacy FVE is around 0.75 (see Table below).
Vaccination coverage
14 February 2021
Further analysis of FVE/Field Vaccine Efficacy (which is around 0.7) supports that the required vaccination coverage should be at least 70%.
02 February 2021
The preliminary analysis of FVE/Field Vaccine Efficacy (which is around 0.75) suggests that the required vaccination coverage should be at least 70%.
References
The analysis is based on the research conducted in:
Becker, N. , Lefevre, Cl. and Utev, S. (2007). Estimating protective vaccine efficacy from large trials with recruitment. Statistical Planning and Inference. 137, 907-914. Available at www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378375806001509
Becker, N.G. and Utev, S. (2002). Protective vaccine efficacy when vaccine response is random. Biometrical Journal. 44, 29-42. Available at onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/1521-4036(200201)44:1%3C29::AID-BIMJ29%3E3.0.CO;2-8
Vaccination data used in analysis are taken from the Our World in Data website..
EPI Graphs
