2nd wave
Monitoring Pandemic Surge
Notation: EPI -Epidemic Index; ERI - Epidemic Risk Index.
2nd wave in South-East Asia
Pandemic is surging in Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand: EPI > 1
Pandemic is surging in Cambodia & Sri Lanka; slowing down in Maldives & Nepal.
2nd wave in India
EPI > 1 and Risk ERI is rocketing, as a result.
Early warning signs of the start of pandemic surge. Since 17 February 2021, EPI is above 1. As a result, the Risk ERI is up, and > 1 since 24 March. The pandemic is surging. Second wave. For more, see India page.
3rd wave in Western Europe
The pandemic in Western Europe is surging again. 3rd wave?
2nd wave in Eastern Europe
Update on the pandemic surge in Eastern Europe
All R numbers/EPI < 1. The pandemic is shrinking in these countries.
There are signs of the pandemic starting to slow down. A downward trend is observed on the graph below.
Surging pandemic in Eastern Europe
There are signs of the pandemic surging in Eastern Europe. R/EPI > 1. The risk index/number ERI > 1 and increasing. The start of a new wave?
Risk numbers/ERI graphs
R numbers/EPI graphs
2nd wave in Western Europe
Update on the 2nd wave: December 2020
The pandemic continues to decline in the following countries in some countries. Below: their Risk numbers ERI graphs.
The start of the 2nd wave: July-... 2020
In some western European countries the pandemic moved into a danger zone, since EPI and ERI became >1.
The Italy EPI and ERI graphs for Aug 5 - Sep 11
The pandemic is starting to surge in Italy: EPI > 1. ERI > 1.
The UK EPI and ERI graphs for July 11 - Sep 11
The below UK EPI (R - numbers) graph for 11 July - 11 Sep shows that the R-numbers are above 1 almost all the time. Together with the increasing UK ERI (Risk numbers) graph for 11 July - 11 Sep, they indicate the surging second wave.
The France EPI and ERI graphs for 21 July - 11 September
The France EPI (R-numbers) for 21 July - 11 Sep are above 1 all but one day. Together with the increasing France ERI (Risk numbers) graph for 21 July - 11 Sep, they indicate the surging second wave. This is very similar to the UK graphs.
The Netherlands EPI and ERI graphs for 22 July - 18 September
The Netherlands EPI (R-numbers) and ERI (Risk numbers) graphs for 22 July - 18 Sep are somewhat similar to the above France and UK graphs.
The Spain EPI and ERI graphs for 22 July - 23 September
The Spain EPI (R-numbers) and ERI (Risk numbers) graphs for 22 July - 23 Sep are below. The Spain ERI (Risk numbers) graph is somewhat similar to the above France and UK graphs. However, the Spain EPI (R-numbers) graph is more chaotic.
