Research

Working Papers

Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending, June 2020, with Sebastian Horn and Carmen Reinhart, NBER Working Paper 27343

Ukraine Support Tracker: Which countries help Ukraine and how? with Arianna Antezza, André Frank, Pascal Frank, Lukas Franz and Ekaterina Reinskaya.

Hidden Defaults, with Sebastian Horn and Carmen Reinhart, forthcoming, AER Papers & Proceedings

Populist Leaders and the Economy, October 2020, with Manuel Funke and Moritz Schularick, CEPR Discussion Paper 15405, R&R at the American Economic Review

Exportweltmeister: The Low Returns on Germany's Capital Exports, with Franziska Hünnekes and Moritz Schularick, R&R at the Journal of International Economics

How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign Governments, March 2021, with Anna Gelpern, Sebastian Horn, Scott Morris and Bradley Parks

Corona Politics: The Cost of Mismanaging Pandemics, September 2020, with Helios Herrera, Guillermo Ordonez and Max Konradt

The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt, 2019, with Matthias Schlegl and Mark L. J. Wright, NBER WP

Capital Flow Cycles: A Long Global View, with Carmen Reinhart and Vincent R. Reinhart, Paper presented at the Eighteenth Jacques Polak Annual IMF Research Conference, November 2-3, 2017. Press Coverage: The Economist


Published Articles

Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century, with Kris Mitchener, accepted by the Journal of Economic Literature

Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo, with Josefin Meyer and Carmen Reinhart, accepted by the Quarterly Journal of Economics

Political Booms, Financial Crises, with Helios Herrera and Guillermo Ordonez, Journal of Political Economy, 2020

China's Overseas Lending, with Sebastian Horn and Carmen Reinhart, forthcoming in the Journal of International Economics

Sovereign Defaults in Court, with Julian Schumacher and Henrik Enderlein, forthcoming in the Journal of International Economics

Restructuring Sovereign Bonds: Holdouts, Haircuts and the Effectiveness of CACs, with Chuck Fang and Julian Schumacher, forthcoming in the IMF Economic Review (Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference Volume), also available as ECB Working Paper

Foreign Law Bonds: Can They Reduce Sovereign Borrowing Costs?, with Marcos Chamon and Julian Schumacher, Journal of International Economics, 2018

ECB Interventions in Distressed Sovereign Debt Markets: The Case of Greek Bonds, with Jeromin Zettelmeyer, IMF Economic Review, 2018

Going to Extremes: Politics after Financial Crises, 1870-2014, with Manuel Funke and Moritz Schularick, European Economic Review, 2016

The Effect of Labor Migration on the Diffusion of Democracy: Evidence from a Former Soviet Republic, with Toman Omar Mahmoud, Hillel Rapoport and Andreas Steinmayr, American Economic Journal - Applied Economics, 2017.

The Output Costs of Hard and Soft Sovereign Default, with Michael Zabel, European Economic Review, 2017.

The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece 1829-2015, with Carmen Reinhart, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2016.

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015, with Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart, American Economic Review, Papers & Proceedings, 2016.

The International Monetary Fund: 70 Years of Reinvention, 2016, with Carmen Reinhart, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2016. A longer version is available as NBER Working Paper 21805

Sovereign Debt Relief and its Aftermath, with Carmen Reinhart, Journal of the European Economic Association (JEEA), 2016. An earlier version is available as NBER Working Paper 20577

  • Press Coverage: New York Times, Washington Post, Bloomberg, Slate, Telegraph, The Guardian, Irish Times, BILD, Die Welt, Kathimerini

  • See also the Summary on VOX

Sovereign Debt Restructurings: Preemptive or Post-Default, 2016, with Tamon Asonuma, Journal of the European Economic Association (JEEA), 2016. Also available as CEPR and CESifo Working Papers

  • NEW: Sept. 2020 update of monthly sovereign default dataset (Asonuma/Trebesch): see here

What Explains Sovereign Debt Litigation?, with Julian Schumacher and Henrik Enderlein, Journal of Law and Economics, 2015. Also available as CESifo WP No. 5319.

Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts, with Juan Cruces (Paper, Appendix), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2013.

  • Press Coverage: Wall Street Journal, Handelsblatt, Die Zeit, Die Welt, Financial Times, La Repubblica, Le Temps, Die Presse, Kathimerini, El Mundo, Nikkei,
    Les Echos, Bloomberg Business Week, The Guardian, Le Monde,
    VOX column

  • 2014 version of haircut dataset

The Greek Debt Restructuring: An Autopsy, CESifo WP 4333, July 2013, with Jeromin Zettelmeyer and Mitu Gulati, Economic Policy, 2013.

      • Press Coverage: Bloomberg, Financial Times, Financial Times Alphaville, Forbes Magazine, Il Sole 24 Ore

Sovereign Debt Disputes: A Database of Government Coerciveness in Debt Crises, with Henrik Enderlein and Laura von Daniels, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2012.

The Economics of Human Trafficking and Labour Migration: Micro-evidence from Eastern Europe, with Toman Omar Mahmoud. Journal of Comparative Economics, 2010.


Additional Articles, Unpublished and Old Work

Resolving Sovereign Debt Crises: the Role of Political Risk, Oxford Economic Papers, 2018
In a
special issue on sovereign debt restructuring by Ghosal and Miller

Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data and Stylized Facts, August 2012, with Udaibir Das and Michael Papaioannou,
IMF Working Paper 12/203 [Paper] and [Data]

      • Press Coverage: Financial Times, Süddeutsche Zeitung, FT Alphaville, Dow Jones Newswire

Seasonal Migration and Networks. Evidence on Moldova's Labour Exodus, with Dennis Goerlich.
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 2008.

The Use of Socio-Economic Criteria for Intergovernmental Transfers: The Case of India, with Tapas K. Sen.
Economic and Political Weekly, 2004.


Book Chapters


Sovereign Default, with Julianne Ams, Reza Baqir and Gelpern
In: Abbas, Pienkowski and Rogoff (Eds.):
Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners, Oxford University Press, 2020.

Restructuring Sovereign Debt: Lessons from Recent History, with Udaibir Das and Michael Papaioannou.
In: Claessens, Kose, Leaven und Valencia (Eds.): Financial Crises, Consequences and Policy Responses, IMF press, 2014

Managing Holdouts: The Case of the 2012 Greek Exchange, with Mitu Gulati and Jeromin Zettelmeyer.
In: Lastra und Buchheit (Eds.): Sovereign Debt Management, Oxford Univ. Press, 2012

Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets. [Download as IMF WP], with Udaibir Das and Michael Papaioannou.
In: Primo Braga, Carlos A. /Dömeland, Dörte (Eds): Debt Relief and Beyond: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead. World Bank Publishers, 2009

Debt Restructuring Delays: Measurement and Stylized Facts.
In: Kolb, Robert (Ed.): Sovereign Debt: From Safety to Default. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.

Sovereign Risk Spillovers, with Udaibir Das and Michael Papaioannou.
In: Kolb, Robert (Ed.): Sovereign Debt: From Safety to Default. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.