News:

• I won an ERC Consolidator Grant on "International Finance and the Great Powers, 1800-2020" (Great.Power.Finance) studying how geopolitics has shaped global capital flows and investor returns over the past 200 years. Specifically, I ask: How does geopolitics and great power rivalry determine the level, composition and direction of international capital flows? How do geopolitical shocks such as wars affect financial returns and how can investors hedge against these risks? 

• I have co-founded the CEPR Research and Policy Network on Geoeconomics. The launch conference was held in Berlin on Nov 30.

• I am leading the CEPR Research Policy Network (RPN) on International Lending and Sovereign Debt with a regular
  International Lending Webinar 

• We founded a Research Initiative in Geopolitics and Economics and held the inaugural Kiel-CEPR conference on geopolitics and economics, bringing together 50+ researchers on the topic

• I prepared a broad-based survey for the NBER Summer Institute 2023, entitled "Sovereign Debt: A Data Survey "

Recent Research:

• Hegemonic Globalization (slides), with Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin and Josefin Meyer

• China as an International Lender of Last Resort, with Sebastian Horn, Brad Parks and Carmen Reinhart, NBER Working Paper 31105

• Populist Leaders and the Economy, with Manuel Funke and Moritz Schularick, American Economic Review, 2024

• Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century, with Kris Mitchener,  Journal of Economic Literature, 2023

• Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo, with Josefin Meyer and Carmen Reinhart, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2022

• Political Booms, Financial Crises, with Helios Herrera and Guillermo Ordonez, Journal of Political Economy, 2020

• Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending, with Sebastian Horn and Carmen Reinhart, NBER Working Paper 27343

• Ukraine Support Tracker: Which countries help Ukraine and how? with Arianna Antezza, André Frank, Pascal Frank, Lukas Franz and Ekaterina Reinskaya. Paper and regularly updated database here

Recent Media Coverage and Outreach:

• April 2023: Our paper on "China as a lender of last resort" was covered by dozens of media outlets including the New York Times, the Financial Times, Bloomberg and the Economist

• April 2023: We released the "Africa Debt Database" (download paper and data here), with David Mihalyi 

• Since March 2022: Our Ukraine Support Tracker was covered by more than 200 media outlets worldwide including multiple times in The Economist, New York Times, Washington Post, Financial Times etc

• April 2022: Vox.eu column on China’s overseas lending and the war in Ukraine

• February 2022: Our paper on "Hidden Defaults" on Chinese debts was covered by The Economist, Handelsblatt, Welt 

• March 2021: My coauthor and former PhD student Sebastian Horn was invited to testify before U.S. Congress (House Financial Services Committee) and summarized our two joint research papers on China's overseas lending

• March 2021: Our paper "How China Lends" was covered by the Economist, Financial Times, Washington Post, Reuters, Spiegel, FAZ, SZ, Die Zeit

• March 2021: Vox.eu column on The cost of populism: evidence from history

• October 2020: Our paper on populists and the economy was covered by Der Spiegel.

• September 2020: "The Debt Pandemic: New steps are needed", IMF Finance & Development (with Bulow, Reinhart and Rogoff)

• April 2020: Vox.eu column on Coronabonds and the forgotten history of European community debt (based on Kiel Policy Brief)

• March 2020: OpEd in Sueddeutsche Zeitung on why Germany can easily borrow now

• March 2020: Vox.eu column on disasters and their international response (with Horn and Reinhart)

• March 2020: OpEd in FAZ asking for European financial solidarity (with 6 other German economists), also in Le Monde, El Mundo, Fin. Dagblad

• March 2020: Piece in LSE Business Review on our paper on political booms gone bust (with Herrera and Ordonez)

• February 2020: Piece in Harvard Business Review on Chinese overseas lending (with Horn and Reinhart)

• September 2019: OpEd in the FAZ based on our research on Germany's foreign investments and their low returns

  • 2019/2020: Our paper on China's ovserases lending was covered in The Economist, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, NZZ, FAZ, Der Spiegel

  • June/July 2019: Our paper on the returns on Germany's foreign investments was covered in Die Zeit, FAZ, Süddeutsche, and NZZ

• February 2019 column on Project Syndicate on pensions and asset returns (with Carmen Reinhart)

• Our paper on sovereign bond returns and haircuts ("Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo") was covered in in NBER Digest, April 2019

• as well as in the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg and FAZ

• September 2018: column in Foreign Affairs on populism and financial crises (with Manuel Funke and Moritz Schularick)

• Older, 2015 Portrait in Süddeutsche Zeitung