New Initiatives:

• I am leading a new CEPR Research Policy Network (RPN) on International Lending and Sovereign Debt

• We founded a new Research Initiative in Geopolitics and Economics and held the inaugural Kiel-CEPR conference on geopolitics and economics, bringing together 50+ researchers on the topic

Recent Research:

• Populist Leaders and the Economy, with Manuel Funke and Moritz Schularick, American Economic Review, conditionally accepted

• Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo, with Josefin Meyer and Carmen Reinhart, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2022

• Coping with Disasters: Two Centuries of International Official Lending, with Sebastian Horn and Carmen Reinhart, NBER Working Paper 27343

• Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century, with Kris Mitchener, Journal of Economic Literature, forthcoming in 2023

• Political Booms, Financial Crises, with Helios Herrera and Guillermo Ordonez, Journal of Political Economy, 2020

• China's Overseas Lending, with Sebastian Horn and Carmen Reinhart, Journal of International Economics, 2021

  • The older July 2019 version is here, issued as Kiel Institute WP and NBER WP No. 26050.

  • Click here, for the China debt stock dataset by country and year, 2000-2017

• How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign Governments, March 2021, with Anna Gelpern, Sebastian Horn, Scott Morris and Bradley Parks, forthcoming Economic Policy

• Ukraine Support Tracker: Which countries help Ukraine and how? with Arianna Antezza, André Frank, Pascal Frank, Lukas Franz and Ekaterina Reinskaya. Paper and regularly updated database here

• Hidden Defaults, with Sebastian Horn and Carmen Reinhart, forthcoming, AER Papers & Proceedings, 2022

  • New dataset on almost 1000 sovereign debt restructurings since 1970 (Chinese, banks, bonds, Paris Club)

• NEW: Update of monthly sovereign default dataset (Asonuma/Trebesch): see here

Recent Media Coverage and Outreach:

• March/April/May/June 2022: Our Ukraine Support Tracker was covered by more than 200 media outlets worldwide including multiple times in The Economist, New York Times, Washington Post, Financial Times etc

• April 2022: Vox.eu column on China’s overseas lending and the war in Ukraine

• February 2022: Our paper on "Hidden Defaults" on Chinese debts was covered by The Economist, Handelsblatt, Welt

• March 2021: My coauthor and former PhD student Sebastian Horn was invited to testify before U.S. Congress (House Financial Services Committee) and summarized our two joint research papers on China's overseas lending

• March 2021: Our paper "How China Lends" was covered by the Economist, Financial Times, Washington Post, Reuters, Spiegel, FAZ, SZ, Die Zeit

• March 2021: Vox.eu column on The cost of populism: evidence from history

• October 2020: Our paper on populists and the economy was covered by Der Spiegel.

• September 2020: "The Debt Pandemic: New steps are needed", IMF Finance & Development (with Bulow, Reinhart and Rogoff)

• April 2020: Vox.eu column on Coronabonds and the forgotten history of European community debt (based on Kiel Policy Brief)

• March 2020: OpEd in Sueddeutsche Zeitung on why Germany can easily borrow now

• March 2020: Vox.eu column on disasters and their international response (with Horn and Reinhart)

• March 2020: OpEd in FAZ asking for European financial solidarity (with 6 other German economists), also in Le Monde, El Mundo, Fin. Dagblad

• March 2020: Piece in LSE Business Review on our paper on political booms gone bust (with Herrera and Ordonez)

• February 2020: Piece in Harvard Business Review on Chinese overseas lending (with Horn and Reinhart)

• September 2019: OpEd in the FAZ based on our research on Germany's foreign investments and their low returns

  • 2019/2020: Our paper on China's ovserases lending was covered in The Economist, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, NZZ, FAZ, Der Spiegel

  • June/July 2019: Our paper on the returns on Germany's foreign investments was covered in Die Zeit, FAZ, Süddeutsche, and NZZ

• February 2019 column on Project Syndicate on pensions and asset returns (with Carmen Reinhart)

• Our paper on sovereign bond returns and haircuts ("Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo") was covered in in NBER Digest, April 2019

• as well as in the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg and FAZ

• September 2018: column in Foreign Affairs on populism and financial crises (with Manuel Funke and Moritz Schularick)

• Older, 2015 Portrait in Süddeutsche Zeitung