My Research

I am an applied econometrician, with a range of research both published and in progress in many seemingly diverse areas of economics.

Work in Progress

• "The long shadow of an infection: COVID-19 and performance at work", with Kai Fischer and W. Benedikt Schmal. DICE Discussion Paper; 2021.

• "Mass Outdoor Events and the Spread of an Airborne Virus: English Football and Covid-19" with Matthew Olczak and Matthew Yeo. Online appendix. Data. R Code. In Covid Economics.

• "Reviewing the Video Assistant Referee", work with Rob Simmons and Giuseppe Migali.

• "Outcomes with asymmetric payoffs: The case of the Soviet Football League".

• "Referee Bias and International Relations", work with Dmitry Dagaev, Sofia Paklina, and Carl Singleton.

• "Women in football", with Meshael Batarfi and Marina Della Giusta.

• "gets: General-to- Specific (GETS) Modelling and Indicator Saturation Methods", R Package Version 0.12, with Genaro Sucarrat and Felix Pretis.

• "Daily Demand: Leicestershire Cricket in the post-war era", working paper.

Recent Output

• "Forecasting: theory and practice", with Fotios Petropoulos, and many co-authors, International Journal of Forecasting.

• "How Sensitive are Sports Fans to Unemployment?", with Jan van Ours, forthcoming in Applied Economics Letters.

• "Echoes: what happens when football is played behind closed doors?", with Carl Singleton and Dominik Schreyer, Applied Economics Letters.

• "Demand for Public Events in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of European Football", with Carl Singleton, European Sport Management Quarterly.

• "Causal Effects of an Absent Crowd on Performances and Refereeing Decisions During Covid-19", with Alex Bryson, Peter Dolton, Dominik Schreyer and Carl Singleton, Economics Letters, 2020.

• "Going with your Gut: The (In)accuracy of Forecast Revisions in a Football Score Prediction Game", with Carl Singleton and Alasdair Brown, in the Journal of Behavioural and Experimental Economics. Also a George Washington University Research Program on Forecasting Discussion Paper (No. 6).

  • Press coverage: Washington Post, and Daily Mail.

• "Information, Prices and Efficiency in An Online Betting Market", with Guy Elaad and Carl Singleton. Published in Finance Research Letters.

• "Evaluating Strange Forecasts", with Carl Singleton and Alasdair Brown, forthcoming in Scottish Journal of Political Economy, a University of Reading Department of Economics Discussion Paper, No. 2019-18.

• "Forecasting and Forecast Narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports", with Mike Clements, University of Reading Discussion Paper and forthcoming in International Journal of Forecasting.

• "Football Attendance over the Centuries".

• "A highly disaggregated look at competitive balance".

• "Officials and Home Advantage", prepared as chapter for Handbook of Sports Economics.

• "The wisdom of amateur crowds: Evidence from an online community of sports tipsters", with Alasdair Brown, European Journal of Operations Research.

• "When are prediction market prices most informative?", with Alasdair Brown and Leighton Vaughan Williams, International Journal of Forecasting.

• "Polls to probabilities: Comparing prediction markets and opinion polls", with Leighton Vaughan Williams, International Journal of Forecasting.

• Pretis, F., Reade, J.J. and Sucarrat, G. (2017) “General-to-Specific (GETS) Modelling and Indicator Saturation with the R Package gets (version 0.7).”, Journal of Statistical Software.

• Brown, A., Rambaccussing, D., Reade, J.J. and Rossi, G. (2017), "Using Social Media to Identify Market Inefficiencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair", Economic Inquiry.

Less Recent Output

Vaughan Williams, L. and Reade, J.J. (2016), "Prediction Markets, Twitter and Bigotgate", Kyklos, forthcoming.

Vaughan Williams, L. and Reade, J.J. (2016), "Forecasting Elections", Journal of Forecasting, July, vol. 35(4), pp. 308-328.

Reade, J.J. (2014), "Information and Predictability: Bookmakers, Prediction Markets and Tipsters as Forecasters", Journal of Prediction Markets, vol. 8(1), pp 43-76.

Econometrics

'Panel Estimation for Worriers', with Anindya Banerjee and Markus Eberhardt. Dormant.

'The Conventional Wisdom in Dealing with Heteroskedasticity Revisited', with Aris Spanos.

'Linear vs. Log-linear Unit Root Specification: An Application of Mis-specification Encompassing', with Aris Spanos and David F. Hendry, published in the Oxford Bulletin for Economics and Statistics.

Applied Microeconomics

'Punishing the Foreigner', with Edoardo Gallo and Thomas Grund. Oxford Bulletin for Economics and Statistics.

'Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting', with Karen Croxson. Economic Journal.

Information Efficiency in High-Frequency Betting Markets, with John Goddard, Chapter in the Oxford Handbook on the Economics of Gambling.

'Detecting Corruption in Football using Forecasting', chapter in Handbook on the Economics of Football.

Applied Macroeconomics

'Imbalances and Business Cycle Synchronicity' with Ingo Bordon and Ulrich Volz.

‘Leader of the Pack? German Monetary Dominance in Europe Prior to EMU’, with Ulrich Volz, 2011, published in Economic Modelling.

For a more complete and up-to-date list of my published research, see my Ideas or Google Scholar pages.

I've also written some articles on Vox.