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last upadate: 08/12/2019       

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Kleiner Kommentar: Der neue SPD-Vorsitzende Borjans will die Erwartung wecken, dass die SPD die 2009 für den Bund  und im  Verfassungsrang eingeführte Schuldenbremse wieder abschaffen will, weil sie das größte Investitionshemmnis sei - angesichts der maroden Infrastruktur und der notwenigen Bekämpfung des Klimawandels. Dies ist zwar eine richtige Diagnose, aber es handelt sich um  eine wohlfeile Forderung, denn aus dem Grundgesetz kann die Bremse nur mit Zweidrittelmehrheit wieder entfernt werden, was mit der CDU überhaupt nicht zu machen ist. Die Schuldenbremse ist das Herzstück neoliberaler Wirtschaftspolitik, und die  die SPD hatte nach ihrem eigenen neoliberalen Umbau der Verfassungsänderung zugestimmt. Wahlkampf mit der Forderung nach Abschaffung betreiben zu wollen und zu wissen, das wird nicht gehen, kommt für mich einer großen Volksverdummung nahe. (08/12/2019)


Below, you find a list of my latest publications and work in progress.


Forthcoming sometime 1920: The long-run properties of the Kaldor-Verdoorn law: a bounds test approach to a panel of Central and East European (CEE) countries.

 This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of my article to be published in Empirica. The final authenticated version will be available online at: http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1007/s10663-019-09467-0.


Forthcoming in early 2020): The Great Transformation in Eastern Europe and its consequences. In: Economic and Labour Relations Review (ELRR), Special issue on  'Capitalism after Communism: Europe and the world1989 -2019'.



Just published:  From the socialist command to a capitalist market economy – the case for an active state. In: European Journal of Economics and Economic Policy - Intervention. Special issue on the Economics of Kazimierzmierz Łaski (1921 - 2015), volume 16, issue 3

Kazimierz Łaski belonged to the group of economists who particularly clearly and convincingly criticized the application of neoliberal doctrines to the transition of socialist countries into market economies. His analysis of the transition agendas was deeply rooted in the Kaleckian tradition of reasoning and brought him much respect but also fierce opposition in the international arena. In answering the why and how of his work, this article will summarize his contributions to the economics and politics of transition.


Earlier publications this year:


Summer 2019: 'The productivity puzzle and the Kaldor-Verdoorn law: the case of Central and Eastern Europe'.Narodowy Bank Polski, NBP Working Paper No. 318. Download: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/318_en.pdf

This study attempts to identify the short- and long-run components of the Kaldor-Verdoorn (KV) law. The law claims that demand dynamics drive productivity dynamics. The claim is tested with a panel of ten Central and Eastern-European countries, where productivity and demand growth have been slowing since 2004/2006 and where fears of an end of convergent growth are spreading. Meanwhile, the gradual slowing of output and productivity growth applies not only to the region considered, but it is also a global phenomenon that is occurring despite remarkable technical progress and that is referred to as the productivity puzzle. However, this puzzle would be solved in light of the KV law. To test for its short-term and long-term properties, least squares and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are applied. Our results confirm the law for the region; slower productivity growth is not due to ‘adverse technological progress’ but to weakening external and domestic demand, which blocks the implementation of product and process innovations.


Spring 2019: ‘Monetary Transformation’, in: Merkel, W., R. Kollmorgen, and H.-J. Wagener (eds.) “The Handbook on Political, Social, and Economic Transformation”,  Oxford: Oxford University Press. £150.00, available also as e-book.


Winter 2018/19: ‘Reflections on a public risk-sharing capacity for the euro area’. In: Nowotny, E., D. Ritzberger-Gründwald, and H. Schuberth (eds.) „Structural reforms for growth and cohesion”, Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, UK, 200-214. This is a revised version of my working paper ‘A fire department for the Euro area: reflections on a fiscal risk-sharing capacity’. MPRA Working paper No. 83965, January 2018. Download https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83965/

 





 

My current research projects include
 

  • The productivity puzzle – theory and empirics (with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe)
  • Actual problems of European integration, chiefly: reforms of the governance system; in prepration: On the EU-Commissions' concept of a capital market union.
  • Finance, growth and competitiveness of The Western Balkans
  • monetary integration: a new approach for assessing the benefits of having an own currency (ARCH/GARCH modelling)

I am a registered author in EconPapers - http://econpapers.repec.org/  and in Research Gate -      http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hubert_Gabrisch/info?editInstDialog=true