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Der Lauf der Welt wird von den Mächten des Irrsinns gelenkt.
last update: 18/06/2022
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Was nun, Ro bert Habeck?
Vor einigen Wochen verlautbarte Robert Habeck, die Energieversorgung für den nächsten Winter sei gesichert, denn wir füllten die Gasspeicher bis November ordentlich auf. Heute heißt es, die Energieversorgung sei a k t u e l l gesichert, also jetzt. Was im Winter sein wird, steht in den Sternen. Was ist passiert? Nun ja, die russische Seite ist ja nicht dumm und liest auch Habecks Verlautbarungen und denkt sich: Mach die Rechnung nicht ohne uns. Wir stoppen die aktuellen Gaslieferungen und ihr kriegt eure Speicher nicht voll. Und schon trägt der Kaiser seine neuen Kleider.....
Was jetzt? Energiesparen? Der Kampf um jede Kilowattstunde ist Unsinn, denn jederingesparte Energieeinheit führt uns in die Stagflation, d.h. Arbeitslosigkeit plus Inflation. Kohlekraftwerke länger laufen lassen? Aus meiner Sicht nicht vernünftig. Besser: Die Laufzeiten der AKWs solange verlängern, bis die LNG-Terminals fertig sind, also um 1-2 Jahre. Es hilft ja nichts! (18.6.2022)
HERE ABOUT MY RESEARCH
A Pre-Print: I have just finalized an essay titled "Can the European Union still be saved?" It is written in German that means not accessable for English-only readers. In this essay I refer to Wolfgang Streeck's book (reviewed above!) and come to a completely different quintessence. The EU is a system combined of traditional and neoliberal elements, and of course, the neoliberal elements can be retrieved, however, at cost of a change in the EU treaties. I start the essay with an exposure of what means 'neoliberal', followed by the identification, which components of the EU are neoliberal, and what to do to save the Union. The essay can be downloaded here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359897543_IST_DIE_EUROPAISCHE_UNION_NOCH_ZU_RETTEN_Ein_Essay
Just published: Keynes vs. Kalecki: Risk and uncertainty in their theories of the rate of interest
Review of Keynesian Economics (10), Issue 1, 46-62. Download info: https://firstname.lastname@example.org/INBOX/1/, US$ 35. - The article is a shortened and revised version of my 2021 wiiw working paper No. 192 . Download: https://www.wiiw.ac.at/
Published 2021: Die prekäre alte Normalität der EU und die Notwendigkeit zur Reform (in German language)
Published 2021: "Elements, origins and future of Great Transformations: Eastern Europe and global capitalism": Economic and Labour Relations Review (ELRR), https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1035304620911123. The article is available as 'Online First'.
The article is fully accessible to all users at libraries and institutions that have purchased a license.
This essay analyses the relationship of two ‘Great Transformations’: the first from socialism to capitalism, more specifically in Eastern Europe in the 1990s, and the second from regulated to unregulated capitalism in the global economy since the 1980s, with respect to their common origins, elements and social results. Applying Karl Polanyi’s double-movement concept, it is concluded that these two, in essence neoliberal, transformations have led to societies being deeply divided economically, socially and culturally. Moreover, the self-protection of transformation losers is generating adverse political outcomes on a global scale. For both reasons, the outcomes of neoliberal transformations are jeopardising also the viability of the European Union, which was initially built on the basis of a regulated capitalism. The future of the global economy and also of the European Union depends on how the conflicts between the deepening of unregulated globalisation, national sovereignty and democratic politics can be solved.
Published 2021: The long-run properties of the Kaldor-Verdoorn law: a bounds test approach to a panel of Central and East European (CEE) countries. Empirica, (), 1-21. DOI: 10.1007/s10663-019-09467-0.The article is available as 'Online First'.
It is fully accessible to all users at libraries and institutions that have purchased a SpringerLink license. An expanded version can be find as .Narodowy Bank Polski, NBP Working Paper No. 318. Download: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/318_en.pdf
This study attempts to identify the short- and long-run components of the Kaldor-Verdoorn (KV) law. The law claims that demand dynamics drive productivity dynamics. The claim is tested with a panel of ten Central and Eastern-European countries, where productivity and demand growth have been slowing since 2004/2006 and where fears of an end of convergent growth are spreading. Meanwhile, the gradual slowing of output and productivity growth applies not only to the region considered, but it is also a global phenomenon that is occurring despite remarkable technical progress and that is referred to as the productivity puzzle. However, this puzzle would be solved in light of the KV law. To test for its long-term properties, panel cointegration models with autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) are applied. Our results confirm the law for the region; slower productivity growth is not due to ‘adverse technological progress’ but to weakening external and domestic demand, which might block the implementation of product and process innovations. A longer and slightly different version can be obtained as NBP Working Paper No. 318 (see below).
See also: From the socialist command to a capitalist market economy – the case for an active state. In: European Journal of Economics and Economic Policy - Intervention. Special issue on the Economics of Kazimierzmierz Łaski (1921 - 2015), volume 16, issue 3.
Kazimierz Łaski belonged to the group of economists who particularly clearly and convincingly criticized the application of neoliberal doctrines to the transition of socialist countries into market economies. His analysis of the transition agendas was deeply rooted in the Kaleckian tradition of reasoning and brought him much respect but also fierce opposition in the international arena. In answering the why and how of his work, this article will summarize his contributions to the economics and politics of transition.
My current research projects include
Actual problems of European integration, chiefly: reforms of the governance system ('democratisation')
The role of the intererest rate in Keynesian and Kaleckian investment functions
Finance, growth and competitiveness of Central- and East European countries
I am a registered author of Repec - http://econpapers.repec.org/ and in Research Gate - http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hubert_Gabrisch/info?editInstDialog=true