aktualisiert/updated: 20 November, 2016


For summer holiday readers:'The Capital Market Union - a dubious vision' (Achtung: in deutscher Sprache!).

Abstract: This essay examines critically the latest concept of the EU-Commission to establish a capital market union for the European Union.  It finds that the overarching goals of stimulating stagnation of EU-wide financing by facilitating cross-border securitization  a n d  making financial markets more resilient might fail. Facilitated securitization might raise systemic risks through a deteriorated risk transformation in the banking sector, imperfect risk transfer (also abroad), and excessive leverage. It creates new liquidity glut completely separate from the needs of the real economy. In addition, this concept is in contradiction to the year-long efforts to install proper regulation and controls to European financial markets. The essay favors the regulation-and-control attempt combined with far going EU-reforms of the financial sector.   

Dowload: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72287/

The Big 2016 PUBLICATION: 

'Improving Competitiveness in the Balkan Region – Opportunities and Limits' WIIW-Research Report No. 411. Download via WIIW website: http://www.wiiw.ac.at/

                This report is the English Version of:

‘Steigerung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit in der Balkanregion – Möglichkeiten und Grenzen‘. (with Doris Hanzl-Weiss, Mario Holzner, Michael Landesmann, Johannes Pöschl and Hermine Vidovic. wiiw Research Report in German language No. 3, Dezember 2015 , 217 pages including 27 Table and 110 Figures. Download: http://wiiw.ac.at/steigerung-der-wettbewerbsfaehigkeit-in-der-balkanregion--moeglichkeiten-und-grenzen-p-3755.html

 Eastern 2016: Monetary policy independence reconsidered: evidence from six non-euro members of the European Union

This study measures the degree of de-facto monetary policy independence
of a national central bank. This measurement might allow a central bank to assess the gains and losses in sovereign affecting the national money market when the country’s own currency is given up and a common one is adopted. The study applies amultivariate GARCH-model to the money market rates of six members of theEuropean Union (EU) that have not adopted the common currency. It finds that thecentral banks of Sweden, Romania, and Poland would not lose considerable de-facto independence by adopting the euro. Their daily money market rates co-move stronglywith the euro money market rates, which is a sign of already low monetary policy dependence despite floating exchange rates. This result confirms other research withco-integration techniques, although the coefficients of co-movement with the euromoney market are lower in the present study. Lower coefficients can be explained bythe impact of non-mean reverting money market rates after heavy shocks in turbulent market periods, which slacken the co-movement ties. The opposite results were obtained for the central banks of the UK, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Hungaryis a problematic case: notwithstanding a low co-movement of money market rateswith the euro market rates, the almost explosive volatility of money market rates after a shock signals a very poor effectiveness of monetary policy. Empirica,
2016: DOI
Download (€34.95):  http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10663-016-9337-3

Christmas 2015:  Cross-border finance, trade imbalances and competitiveness in the euro area.

The nearly exclusive explanation for current account imbalances in the euro area blames real economy differences between countries, prominently the competitiveness of the participating states. This essay questions the common opinion that wage policy is crucial for rebalancing the European economies. This essay attempts to unfurl the real economy processes from the perspective of money and finance. This essay identifies an interregional asset-price-interest mechanism at work in the monetary union: A general change in the state of confidence provokes asset prices and the effective long-run interest rate to change and to affect aggregate demand and trade flows. A change in competitive positions of countries follows as the second-round effect. The policy implications prefer a downscaling of the financial sector against government interventions into wage formation.MPRA Paper No.68518.Download: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/68518/