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The fatal consequences of annexation and Putin’s speech

Since the beginning of the War in Ukraine at latest, I have always pointed to the structural analogies of Putin and his Regime to similar historic events, and here: Hitler-Germany. If I am right, the annexation of Eastern Ukraine and the speech of Putin, full of hatred, shine a better light on the road ahead. But before I try to describe this road, an explication what I understand under under the method ‘structural analogy’. It should not be misunderstood as a crystal ball. It is a method to conclude by historical analogy and thus assumes similar structures in past and future history. Imagine we disposed of a distant mirror, through which we might look from the present back to the far past, we might recognize such similar structures. I used this method in my article ‘Elements, origins and future of Great Transformations: Eastern Europe and global capitalism’ In: The Economic and Labour Relations Review 2020, Vol. 31(2), pp. 172–190. The German historian Herfried Münkler referenced to it in his book on the Thirty Years War: Münkler H. “Der Dreißigjährige Krieg: Europäische Katastrophe, deutsches Trauma 1618-1648, Berlin: rowohlt.2017, p. 818. ”. Münkler asks whether the theoretical model of the 30years war can serve as an analytical framework for present and future wars. The metaphor itself goes back to the US-American historian Barbara Tuchman in her masterpiece “The Distant Mirror. The Calamitous 14th Century“ German edition: ”Der ferne Spiegel. Das dramatische 14. Jahrhundert”, Düsseldorf: Claasen Verlag 1980. She used the 14th century with a focus on contemporary France. In this very brief comment that follows, I use the distant mirror as an analytical framework, although I have to confess that the past I am relating to, might not be sufficiently gone away.

Now, Putin’s speech itself recalls me the “Do-you-want-the- total-war” Sportpalast-speech of Joseph Goebbels in February 1943 upon having faced the Stalingrad disaster a couple of days ago. Goebbel’s speech was the desperate attempt to shift the fortunes of war by boundaryless terror and the use of all new weapons available or in preparation (V1 and V2).

Putin’s announcement that the annexed territories will remain Russian for ever also has immediate impacts on the war theatre. At first, as Hitler prohibited any retreat or capitulation of his army after the enemy has entered German territory, the Kremlin ‘Regime will prohibit the retreat of soldiers and their officers from each village, town etc. – a consequence that until now was not yet necessary (see the retreats from Kyiv, Charkiw etc.). This step would certainly undermine the ability of the Russian military leadership for a flexible and thus, more effective warfare. It coincides with news that 5,000 Russian soldiers are surrounded in the East-Ukrainian city of Lyman, and the plea of the common soldiers for a retreat were rejected by the officers (KyivPost October 1, 2022). Defeats will be mounting and become more severe. Joseph Goebbels mobilized the so-called Volkssturm – old and untrained men and poorly equipped -, and my impression is that the Regime’s partial mobilization will dry out to a similar extent, after 200,000 of younger men have fled.

Then, secondly, there remains the strategic usage of a nuclear weapon (the modern analogy to the V2). Such as the US dropped nuclear bombs at Japanese cities far away from the war theatre to break the resistance of the enemy, the Putin regime might drop a bomb at a West Ukrainian city, far from the front, say at Lviv. According to Podoljak, the adviser to W. Selenskij, the risk for a using a nuclear bomb has risen after Putin’s speech (Süddeutsche Zeitung October ^, 2022). The response of NATO and allies will be unambiguous, as I understand the US administration announcements, namely the entry to war against Russia. One can only hope that a conspiracy of Russian patriots is in preparation and will succeed - differently to the 20th of July 1944 in Germany.


A Pre-Print: I have just finalized an essay titled "Can the European Union still be saved?" It is written in German that means not accessable for English-only readers. In this essay I refer to Wolfgang Streeck's book (reviewed above!) and come to a completely different quintessence. The EU is a system combined of traditional and neoliberal elements, and of course, the neoliberal elements can be retrieved, however, at cost of a change in the EU treaties. I start the essay with an exposure of what means 'neoliberal', followed by the identification, which components of the EU are neoliberal, and what to do to save the Union. The essay can be downloaded here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359897543_IST_DIE_EUROPAISCHE_UNION_NOCH_ZU_RETTEN_Ein_Essay

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.27384.32007

Just published: Keynes vs. Kalecki: Risk and uncertainty in their theories of the rate of interest

Review of Keynesian Economics (10), Issue 1, 46-62. Download info: https://mail.one.com/h.gabrisch@wile-institute.eu/INBOX/1/, US$ 35. - The article is a shortened and revised version of my 2021 wiiw working paper No. 192 . Download: https://www.wiiw.ac.at/

This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically incalculable, Kalecki was convinced that it could be predicted. The theories are empirically tested using GARCH-in-mean (MGARCH) models without and with restrictions assigned to six globally leading financial markets. The obtained results support rather Keynes’s case – the long-term rate of interest is a nonergodic financial phenomenon. Analyses of the relation between the interest rate and macroeconomic variables without interest uncertainty are thus seriously incomplete.

Published 2021: Die prekäre alte Normalität der EU und die Notwendigkeit zur Reform (in German language)

Wirtschaftsdienst - Jahrg. 101 (2021), Heft 10, S. 814-820.

Die EU befindet sich seit 2008 im Krisenmodus. Die Sehnsucht nach der alten Normalität ist das große politische Ziel, aber eine Rückkehr zum Status quo ante wäre nicht wirklich wünschenswert. Leider besitzt die europäische Politik kein Konzept für die Zukunft der Union nach der Covid-Pandemie. Das könnte sich als existenzielles Problem für die Union in ihrer derzeitigen Gestalt erweisen, Der Artikel analysiert den inneren Zusammenhang der verschiedenen Krisen seit 2008, die Felder für eine Reform der Architektur der Union in den zentralen Feldern Fiskal- und Geldpolitik, warnt vor weiteren Krisen und vor einer Marginalisierung der Union im globalen Maßstab.

Download info: https://www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu/pdf-download/jahr/2021/heft/10/beitrag/die-prekaere-alte-normalitaet-der-eu-und-die-notwendigkeit-zur-reform.html - free access.

Published 2021: "Elements, origins and future of Great Transformations: Eastern Europe and global capitalism": Economic and Labour Relations Review (ELRR), https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1035304620911123. The article is available as 'Online First'.


The article is fully accessible to all users at libraries and institutions that have purchased a license.

This essay analyses the relationship of two ‘Great Transformations’: the first from socialism to capitalism, more specifically in Eastern Europe in the 1990s, and the second from regulated to unregulated capitalism in the global economy since the 1980s, with respect to their common origins, elements and social results. Applying Karl Polanyi’s double-movement concept, it is concluded that these two, in essence neoliberal, transformations have led to societies being deeply divided economically, socially and culturally. Moreover, the self-protection of transformation losers is generating adverse political outcomes on a global scale. For both reasons, the outcomes of neoliberal transformations are jeopardising also the viability of the European Union, which was initially built on the basis of a regulated capitalism. The future of the global economy and also of the European Union depends on how the conflicts between the deepening of unregulated globalisation, national sovereignty and democratic politics can be solved.

Published 2021: The long-run properties of the Kaldor-Verdoorn law: a bounds test approach to a panel of Central and East European (CEE) countries. Empirica, (), 1-21. DOI: 10.1007/s10663-019-09467-0.The article is available as 'Online First'.


It is fully accessible to all users at libraries and institutions that have purchased a SpringerLink license. An expanded version can be find as .Narodowy Bank Polski, NBP Working Paper No. 318. Download: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/318_en.pdf

This study attempts to identify the short- and long-run components of the Kaldor-Verdoorn (KV) law. The law claims that demand dynamics drive productivity dynamics. The claim is tested with a panel of ten Central and Eastern-European countries, where productivity and demand growth have been slowing since 2004/2006 and where fears of an end of convergent growth are spreading. Meanwhile, the gradual slowing of output and productivity growth applies not only to the region considered, but it is also a global phenomenon that is occurring despite remarkable technical progress and that is referred to as the productivity puzzle. However, this puzzle would be solved in light of the KV law. To test for its long-term properties, panel cointegration models with autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) are applied. Our results confirm the law for the region; slower productivity growth is not due to ‘adverse technological progress’ but to weakening external and domestic demand, which might block the implementation of product and process innovations. A longer and slightly different version can be obtained as NBP Working Paper No. 318 (see below).

See also: From the socialist command to a capitalist market economy – the case for an active state. In: European Journal of Economics and Economic Policy - Intervention. Special issue on the Economics of Kazimierzmierz Łaski (1921 - 2015), volume 16, issue 3.

Kazimierz Łaski belonged to the group of economists who particularly clearly and convincingly criticized the application of neoliberal doctrines to the transition of socialist countries into market economies. His analysis of the transition agendas was deeply rooted in the Kaleckian tradition of reasoning and brought him much respect but also fierce opposition in the international arena. In answering the why and how of his work, this article will summarize his contributions to the economics and politics of transition.

My current research projects include

  • Actual problems of European integration, chiefly: reforms of the governance system ('democratisation')

  • The role of the intererest rate in Keynesian and Kaleckian investment functions

  • Finance, growth and competitiveness of Central- and East European countries

I am a registered author of Repec - http://econpapers.repec.org/ and in Research Gate - http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Hubert_Gabrisch/info?editInstDialog=true