Research

Published and Accepted Papers

Abstract:  Do negative housing shocks lead to persistent changes in household attitudes toward housing and homeownership? We use the residential destruction of Germany during World War II (WWII) as a quasi-experiment and exploit the reasonably exogenous region-by-cohort variation in destruction exposure. We find that WWII-experiencing cohorts from high destruction regions are significantly less likely to be homeowners decades later, controlling for regional differences and household characteristics. Underlying this effect are changes in household attitudes towards homeownership that also extend to preferences for housing consumption, with little or no support for risk preferences, income and wealth effects, or supply-side factors.

Conditionally accepted at the  Journal of Financial Economics

On the program of SFS Cavalcade 2022,  CEPR European Workshop on Household Finance 2022.

Abstract: Does investors' political ideology shape international capital allocation? We provide evidence from two settings - syndicated corporate loans and equity mutual funds - to show ideological alignment with foreign governments affects the cross-border capital allocation by U.S. institutional investors. Ideological alignment on both economic and social issues plays a role. Our empirical strategy ensures direct economic effects of foreign elections or government ties between countries are not driving the result. Ideological distance between countries also explains variation in bilateral investment. Combined, our findings imply ideological alignment is an important, omitted factor in models of international capital allocation.

Internet Appendix

Coverage: BFI Research Brief, Chicago Booth Review, ProMarket

Abstract: We document a 24% decline in loan issuances in the UK syndicated loan market after the Brexit vote relative to a set of comparable loan markets. The decline in lending is driven by a pervasive reduction in demand by UK firms. Changes in GDP forecast around the Brexit vote explain about 61% of the decline in lending. We do not find evidence, however, that the UK loses its attractiveness as a financial center for cross-border lending. Our results point to the resilience of global financial centers in the face of large unexpected shocks. 

Abstract: Do relationship banks help firms in distress? Combining a survey-based measure of relationship lending with unique credit registry data, I examine the effect of relationship lending on loan performance. I find that the same firm in the same time period is more likely to become delinquent on a relationship-based loan relative to a transaction-based loan. Higher delinquencies do not, however, result in more defaults or less loan recoveries for relationship banks when loans mature relative to transactional banks. Conditional on past delinquencies, relationship banks are more likely to offer follow-up financing and extract rents. Consistent with theory, relationship banks tolerate temporarily bad results, yet extract rents and secure future business in return. The paper provides new empirical evidence for rent extraction by relationship banks that have been lenient to distressed firms in the past. 

Abstract: Can distance-related information asymmetries in credit markets be overcome with contract design and credit scoring models? To answer this question, we explore differences in foreign and domestic banks’ credit contract terms and pricing models. Using a sample of firms that borrow from both domestic and foreign banks in the same month, we show that foreign banks are more likely to demand collateral and grant shorter maturity loans than domestic banks. Foreign banks also base their pricing on internal credit ratings and collateral pledges, while domestic banks price according to the length, depth and breadth of their relationship with a firm. These findings confirm that foreign banks can overcome informational disadvantages using contract design and credit scoring models. However, we also show that there are limitations, with foreign banks facing higher default rates and lower returns on lending if not using collateral and short maturity as disciplining tools.

Working Papers

Abstract:  We study the effect of changes in firms’ ESG ratings on the cost of debt of U.S. firms using a methodology change of an ESG rating provider. We find that loan spreads of downgraded ESG-rated firms in the secondary corporate loan market increase by about 10% compared to non-downgraded ESG-rated firms after the methodology change. The effect of ESG rating downgrades is not driven by the increase in the fundamental default risk of firms but rather by the premium charged by lenders above the spread for default risk. The effect is stronger for firms that are more financially constrained and firms that are more exposed to ESG and, particularly, climate risk concerns. Importantly, we show that also loan spreads of private (unrated) firms in industries affected by ESG rating downgrades increase after the methodology change.

On the program of CEPR Endless Summer Conference on Financial Intermediation and Corporate Finance.

Abstract:  This paper provides a comprehensive and detailed analysis of Central and Eastern European (CEE) equity markets from the mid-1990s until now. Using firm-level data and custom-made indices and indicators, we show that (1) there is considerable heterogeneity in the degree, dynamics, and determinants of market development across the different markets, (2) that especially the smaller markets still offer diversification benefits to global investors, (3) there are substantial premiums associated to investing in small, value, and low volatility stocks.

Work in Progress