Publications
Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter, with Francisco Ruge-Murcia
IMF Economic Review, 2023 | WP version
Examines the conjecture that in a flexible exchange rate regime, an increase in tariffs on foreign goods leads to the appreciation of the local currency.
The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence, with Antoine Camous
Economic Journal, Vol. 133, pp. 1–29, January 2023 | WP version
Should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policymakers?
Media: Central Banking, SUERF
Time-Consistent Management of a Liquidity Trap with Government Debt
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 53, pp. 2129–2165, December 2021 | WP version
Shows that debt maturity considerations affect the optimal conduct of monetary and fiscal policy in the presence of episodes with binding lower bound on nominal interest rates.
Furor over the Fed: A President's Tweets and Central Bank Independence, with Antoine Camous
CESifo Economic Studies, Vol. 67, pp. 106–127, March 2021 | WP version
Studies how markets perceived attempts of the president to influence monetary policy in the US.
Media: Bloomberg, Financial Post
Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk-Adjustments? with Klaus Adam and Stefan Nagel
Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 117, pp. 723–740, January 2021
Uses survey data to test the empirical plausibility of the ideas that stock market investors interviewed in surveys report risk-neutral or pessimistically-tilted forecasts.
Working Papers
Neutral Rate of Interest in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Canada, with Martin Kuncl
Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2023-5 | R&R Canadian Journal of Economics
Uses a small open economy model with overlapping generations to evaluate secular dynamics of the neutral rate in Canada from 1980 to 2018.
Monetary Policy and Government Debt Dynamics without Commitment - updated October 2016
Bank of Canada Staff Working Paper 2019-52
Shows that debt maturity considerations affect the optimal conduct of monetary and fiscal policy during the period of government debt reduction.
Non-Refereed and Policy Work
Literature Reviews
Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature, with Matteo Cacciatore and Rodrigo Sekkel
Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2022-9
Draws from the academic literature to review some of the key sources of uncertainty faced by central banks and their implications for the conduct of monetary policy.
Complementarities Between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy—Literature Review, with Wei Dong, Geoffrey Dunbar, Christian Friedrich, Romanos Priftis, Lin Shao
Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2021-4
Surveys and summarizes the literature on how fiscal policy and monetary policy can complement each other in stabilizing economic activity.
Neutral Interest Rate (r*)
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment, with Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note 2023-6
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment, with Guyllaume Faucher, Christopher Hajzler, Martin Kuncl, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note 2022-3
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2020 Update, with Julien McDonald-Guimond and Rodrigo Sekkel
Bank of Canada Staff Analytical Note 2020-24
Other
Estimating Term Structure and Forecasting Yields in the Spanish Treasury Market
Banco Sabadell Working Report, July 2012
Uses a latent factors autoregressive model to estimate the yield curve in the Spanish government securities market. Estimated factors are then used to forecast the benchmark bond yields.
Work in Progress
Indivisible Labor and Optimal Progressivity of Tax and Transfers, with Minchul Yum
Disclaimer: The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors. No responsibility for them should be attributed to the Bank of Canada.