Polls, Election Day, Forecasts, Commentary, Historic Significance

Understanding the Presidential Election

Hundreds of books, thousands of lines of newspaper commentary, complex polling and prediction sites, and yet in 2016 almost everyone got it wrong. Today, we STILL see those same websites, analysts, commentators saying the same things as they did in 2016. This website tries to cut through all of this to present our most accurate and independent view of the election and who will win.

Who will win on November 3, 2020?

USA Decides Predictor:

Currently (September 15, 2020) : USA Decides Predicts a 61.40% chance of victory for Joe Biden.

On September 02, 2020 : USA Decides Predicted a 73.2% chance of a victory for Joe Biden.

THE RACE IS: NARROWING - THE RACE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AS WE APPROACH THE DEBATES

(source data: FiveThirtyEight.com)

Who has the REAL advantage and why?

There are multiple factors weighing on who will win the Presidential Election. Once per week we will update this page, first with "WHO WILL WIN" followed by a "BREAKDOWN" of our prediction. We will maintain a record of our weekly predictions.

Click for more information on: Donald Trump/Mike Pence

Click For more information on: Joe Biden/Kamala Harris

WHO WILL WIN

Currently (August 31, 2020) : USA Decides calculates 7/13 factors in favoring a victory for Joe Biden

On August 23, 2020 : USA Decides calculated 7/13 factors in favoring a victory for Joe Biden.

BREAKDOWN

BREAKDOWN

Our BREAKDOWN analysis is calculated using methods described in the book: "Predicting The Next President" by Allan J. Lichtman

Historic Significance?

This election holds historic significance, more than 2008 and most likely the most important election since 1960. The country is split and we see negative opinions of the opposing party being the driving force. Both sides firmly believe that the outcome of this election will make or break The United States of America (something that we doubt). There are multiple articles on the Left, and the Right alluding to this. Here are two recent examples:

Fox News: Sean Hannity calls November vote 'the biggest choice election by far in our lifetime' (August 11, 2020)

New York Magazine: Joe Biden Needs to Win Big to Avoid a Contested Election (July 14, 2020)