Battleground States

This Election the Battleground States are Critical

We have narrowed our analysis down to just six critical swing States: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

We are continuously looking at the most recent polls from these six States. This analysis shows just how close this Election will be.

USA Decides Predictor: Critical Battleground States

Currently (September 20th, 2020) : USA Decides shows Biden at 48.62% and Trump at 44.78%

On September 6th, 2020 : USA Decides had Biden at 48.4% and Trump at 44.92%

THE RACE IS EXTREMELY NARROW: SHOWING A SMALL BUT STEADY LEAD FOR BIDEN, LEADING IN TO THE DEBATES

Battleground Analysis
(source data: realclearpolitics.com)

USA Decides Predictor: Details of the six Battleground States - September 20th, 2020:

Arizona has Biden at 49.2% and Trump at 44.2%: no swing since September 6th, 2020.

Florida has Biden at 48.6% and Trump at 47%: a swing of 0.2% towards Biden, since September 6th, 2020.

Michigan has Biden at 47.8% and Trump at 43%: a swing of 1.5% towards Biden, since September 6th, 2020.

North Carolina has Biden at 47.3% and Trump at 46.4%: a swing of 0.4% towards Trump since September 6th, 2020.

Pennsylvania has Biden at 48.7% and Trump at 44.7%: a swing of 0.8% towards Biden since September 6th, 2020.

Wisconsin has Biden at 50.1% and Trump at 43.4%: no swing since September 6th, 2020.

Factoring in the polling variance from 2016

In 2016, most pollsters mis-calculated results in the Battleground States.

Examples:

Polling in Wisconsin predicted a win for Clinton - the polls were off by 7.2%, and Trump won the State.

Polling in Michigan predicted a win for Clinton - the polls were off by 3.7%, and Trump won the State.

Polling in Pennsylvania predicted a win for Clinton - the polls were off by 2.6%, and Trump won the State.

Below we are factoring in the differences between the polling averages and the actual results in the Key Battleground States, and then making a prediction of the outcome in these critical States, tabulating the final results and making our most accurate Election Prediction:

Currently (September 20th, 2020) : USADecides predicts:

Biden at: 309 Electoral Votes

Trump at: 229 Electoral Votes

A Win For: Biden

Battleground Analysis