Bell, D. and Wilson, T., (2017). The Gender Pay Gap in Scotland. Royal Society of Edinburgh Advice Paper No: 17-07

Anderberg, D., Rainer, H., Wadsworth, J. and Wilson, T. (2016), Unemployment and Domestic Violence: Theory and Evidence. Economic Journal, 126: 1947–1979. 

Sauer, R.M. and Wilson, T., (2016). The rise of female entrepreneurs: New evidence on gender differences in liquidity constraints. European Economic Review, 86, pp.73-86.

Can education policy reduce the incidence of teenage motherhood? This paper uses data from the largest UK household-level survey to investigate the impact of a change in legislation, which increased the duration of compulsory schooling, on the timing of fertility using a regression discontinuity design. The findings indicate strong evidence that the schooling reform induced a downwards impact on fertility not only at the new school-leaving age, but also exerted a non-monotonic effect throughout the teenage years. Overall the analysis suggests that the increase in mandatory education caused a postponement of fertility with the influence of the reform dissipating after age 20.
            Helen Robinson Award for the best paper by a junior academic (WPEG, 2012)
            Media: The ObserverBBC Radio Berkshire

2. Marriage Market Consequences of an Educational Reform with Timo Hener, submitted
We investigate the impact of a UK education reform which induced a cohort discontinuity in the level of qualifications received by individuals, and find that typical matching patterns cannot be achieved. In particular, treated women who retain the predominant matching pattern with an older spouse are constrained as their potential partners are from untreated cohorts, whereas for treated men maintaining the typical marital age-gap involves a match with a younger woman, who is also subject to the reform. This implies an overlooked gender heterogeneity in education reform effects. 

3. Paying kids to stay in school. Does fertility behavior change?
Early childbearing is perceived to have adverse consequences for both the mother and her child. Teenage mothers have lower academic attainment, and are more likely to come from economically disadvantaged families. This paper examines the impact of a conditional cash transfer program implemented in the United Kingdom, the Education Maintenance Allowance, designed to induce an increase in participation in post-compulsory education by young people from low-income households, on teenage fertility rates in England. Consistent with previous research, the analysis confirms the positive impact of the program on staying-on rates, and finds that this induced a negative impact on teen maternity rates.

4. Asian Gold - Expected Returns to Crime and Thieves Behaviour (with A. Chevalier and N. Braakmann)
A rational criminal seeks to maximise the expected benefits from illegal activity. We investigate whether criminals reallocate efforts towards potential targets with higher expected payoffs following exogenous changes in goods prices. Our identification strategy relies on the common perception in the UK that families of South Asian descent keep a substantial amount of gold in their houses. The expected gains from targeting these households for burglaries consequently change with the gold price. Using a difference-in-difference approach we combine crime data from UK police forces with census information and official gold prices. Our analysis indicates that areas with a large share of South Asians face a disproportionate increase in property crime relative to other neighbourhoods in the same local authority when the price of gold increases.

1. An Equilibrium Trade-Off between Age and Qualification? Evidence from Marriage Market Adjustments over a UK Educational Reform
with Dan Anderberg, Jesper Bagger and V. Bhaskar