How to Predict VXX Stock Price Trends Using VXX 20 Day Volatility Moving Average 20VMA

July 27, 2012

Before we show you how to predict VXX stock price trends using VXX 20 Day Volatility Moving Average 20VMA, we want to show you how VXX 20 Day Volatility Moving Average 20VMA is calculated.


VXX In-Day Volatility = (High - Low) / Low * 100

20VMA = Average of 20 days VXX In-Day Volatility



Chart 1-717
Before we show you how to predict VXX stock price trends using VXX 20 Day Moving Average 20VMA, first we need to tell you what VXX 20 Day Moving Average 20VMA is and how it is calculated. VXX intraday or In-Day Volatility = (High - Low) / Low * 100
grey - one sigma error bars

Chart 2-717
20 Day Moving Average 20VMA, first we need to tell you what VXX 20 Day Moving Average 20VMA is and how it is calculated. %VXX (+) In-Day Volatility = (High - Low) / Low * 100
grey - one sigma error bars


In-Day Volatility appears to be 'roughly' proportional to %VXX, meaning higher %VXX higher volatility.

Calculating 20-Day Volatility Moving Average for each day and plotting 20VMA over time with actual VXX closing price, we get this:

Chart 3-717
Before we show you how to predict VXX stock price trends using VXX 20 Day Moving Average 20VMA, we need to show you how VXX 20 Day Moving Average 20VMA is is calculated. VXX In-Day Volatility = (High - Low) / Low * 100 grey - one sigma error bars In-Day Volatility appears to be 'roughly' proportional to %VXX, meaning higher %VXX higher volatility. When we calculate 20-Day Volatility Moving Average for each day and plot the 20VMA over time with actual VXX closing price, we get this:


Notice the similarities of 20-Day Volatility Moving Average 20VMA and 10 Run Moving Average 10RMA predicting VXX price trends up and down when they both cross zero.

Chart 4-717

CORRECTION  VXX in legends below should be VXX / 8, not VXX



And we see more similarities adding 20VMA Standard Deviation 
Chart 5-717
Before we show you how to predict VXX stock price trends using VXX 20 Day Moving Average 20VMA, we need to show you how VXX 20 Day Moving Average 20VMA is calculated. VXX In-Day Volatility = (High - Low) / Low * 100 Chart 1-717 Chart 2-717 grey - one sigma error bars In-Day Volatility appears to be 'roughly' proportional to %VXX, meaning higher %VXX higher volatility. When we calculate 20-Day Volatility Moving Average for each day and plot 20VMA over time with actual VXX closing price, we get this: Chart 3-717 Notice the similarities of 20-Day Volatility Moving Average 20VMA and 10 Run Moving Average 10RMA predicting VXX price trends up and down when they both cross the X-axis. Chart 4-717 And we see even more similarities adding 20VMA Standard Deviation



Data for Charts 1-5 above
Chart 6-717
Before we show you how to predict VXX stock price trends using VXX 20 Day Moving Average 20VMA, we need to show you how VXX 20 Day Moving Average 20VMA is is calculated. VXX In-Day Volatility = (High - Low) / Low * 100 grey - one sigma error bars In-Day Volatility appears to be 'roughly' proportional to %VXX, meaning higher %VXX higher volatility. When we calculate 20-Day Volatility Moving Average for each day and plot 20VMA over time with actual VXX closing price, we get this: Notice the similarities of 20-Day Volatility Moving Average 20VMA and 10 Run Moving Average 10RMA predicting VXX price trends up and down when they both cross the X-axis. And we see even more similarities adding 20VMA Standard Deviation Data for charts above


We selected 20VMA as having the best balance of variables.

Chart 7-717
Showing 10VMA, 20VMA, 30VMA
We selected 20VMA as having the best balance of what we are looking for Chart 6-717 Showing 10VMA, 20VMA, 30VMA



Chart 8-717
Summary data of 10VMA, 20VMA, 30VMA


Chart 9-719
Run Chart July 19, note 9 consecutive positive 1-Day Runs 
showing no positive VXX strength
Volatility Research Theory of Moving Averages of VXX Runs Series Containing Consecutive Alternating Values Plus and Minus is applied to moving averages of 10 VXX consecutive runs we denote as 10RMA. A run is one or more consecutive days of VXX closing price the same direction as the previous day — up or down. Positive runs varied from 1 to 6 days and negative runs from 1 to 7 days since Jan 3, 2011. As of May 31, 2012 close, there have been 151 VXX runs — 76 positive and 75 negative — in the 357-day period. What is Moving Averages VXX "Runs Flush Factor"? VXX Runs inherently have consecutive alternating positive and negative values as can be seen in Table 2 below. This alternating positive and negative characteristic enables a more accurate projection of VXX price trends than do typical moving averages of all positive or all negative values because of what we denote as the VXX Runs Moving Average "Runs Flush Factor" and 10RMA.


Please also see our other predictions





July 22, 2012

Since this page was first up 4 days ago, July 18 8:14 AM, it is ranked #2 of 21 million pages on Google® Search searching Predict Price Trends 20 Day Moving Average* followed by one other of our pages.


July 22, 2012 Since this page was first up 4 days ago, July 18 8:14 AM, it is ranked #1 of 21 million pages on Google® Search searching Predict Price Trends 20 Day Moving Average* followed by one other of pages.