You can now reach this page with this Google® Shortener short URL This page is continued here Quite by accident, we've found what looks like a pretty good way to predict VXX stock price trends — up, down, top and bottom — using a 10-Run Moving Average, 10RMA. A run is 1 or more consecutive days of VXX closing price the same direction as the previous day — up or down. Smoothing and plotting the runs data series since Jan 2011 with a 10-run moving average 10RMA, results are uncanny (See Charts below). This may be our most significant research observation using 10RMA to predict VXX price trends. We stumbled onto this trying to understand the unusually high occurrence of 5-day runs compared to 4 and 6-day runs in Table 1 below.
Chart 4, Chart 622-b from here, showing effect of (+) and (-) Runs 10RMA on VXX 10-Run Moving Averages (10RMA). One possible signal, a leading indicator, that the current VXX crash may be bottoming out will be when 10RMA crosses 0, (-) Runs 10RMA reaches -0.7 and (+) Runs 10RMA exceeds 0.7. See X-axis = 119 for the last time a VXX down trend bottomed out. Chart 3, Chart 622-b from here , Chart 2 with Runs data showing how VXX 10-Run Moving Averages (10RMA) and VXX change with Runs. Chart 1, Chart 622-b from here, shows how well VXX 10-Run Moving Averages (10RMA) predict VXX price trends UP, DOWN, TOP, BOTTOM, and some peaks and valleys. When 10RMA crosses zero, VXX price trend change from + to (-) and vice versa. Data plotted from Feb 9, 2011 to May 9, 2012. Table 1 showing the unusually high occurrence of 5-day runs compared to 4 and 6-day runs. Jan 3, 2011 to Apr 10, 2012, 320 days
Aug 8, 2012 This page is ranked #10 of 37 million pages Aug 6, 2012 on Google® Search searching How to Predict Stock Price Trends*. ![]() Related Tickers: VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX ST ETN (NYSEArca:TVIX), VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ETN (NYSEArca:XIV), VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Medium-Term ETN (NYSEArca:ZIV), iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (NYSEArca:VXZ), VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (NYSEArca:VXZ), iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSEArca:VXX) |
hot tips >