VXX forecasts Feb 1-10, 2012 charts

Friday, February 10, 2012, 5:42 PM

The charts below show one implementation of our new, breakthrough technology. Each day in 2011 %VXX has a 2, 3 and 4 digit Quad Path history value (qPath). Each subsequent qPath digit represents the preceding day's Quad VXX closed in 1, 2, 3 or 4.

Comparing this year's Quad Path history with last year's, days in 2011 with the same qPath as our most recent day in 2012 are shown in blue at the bottom of the charts below.

We know we should be in murky waters projecting based on last year's qPath data — But our projections using this data have been surprisingly accurate so far this year. 

Maybe these projections are accurate due to the confluence of extreme, volatility randomness and the many factors causing it — flip enough coins at the same time and you're bound to get some heads. If so, then we should expect poor correlation later this year if volatility continues to remain low and randomness decreases.

Quad Path history for recent 2012 %VXX data is shown in blue in the charts below. Each subsequent qPath digit represents the preceding day's-close Quad  2, 3 or 4.

Yesterday we bought 1,000 VXX and forecast that today, Feb 10th, would close up. 

Well, not only has today closed up, it closed up 8.53%. Looks like, not only did we nail it yesterday, but VXX may be on a run with today the 4th day of the run.

Based on limited data in blue at the bottom of this chart for today's qPath last year, we forecast that Monday, Feb 13th, will also close up.

Click chart to enlarge




Thursday, February 9, 2012, 11:21 PM

We forecast yesterday that today, Feb 9th, would close up. VXX closed up 2.82%

Midday, we bought 1,000 VXX at 25.20 that we tipped you to in TIP 2012-0209 noon.

We forecast tomorrow, Feb 10th, will close up too

The near-vertical increase in %VXX in the chart below is a condition we have not seen before — a significant increase in VXX with very little change in S&P 500 Index. This condition may be predicting a downturn in S&P 500 Index soon.

%VXX vs %S&P 500  Feb 9, 2012
Click chart to enlarge




Wednesday, February 8, 2012, 4:33 PM

We were unable to forecast today's, Feb 8th, close yesterday because of limited data.

Today, Feb 8th, VXX closed up 2.21%.

Based on limited data in blue at the bottom of this chart for today's qPath last year, we forecast that tomorrow, Feb 9th, will close up.

VXX Quad path and forecast
Click chart to enlarge




Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Yesterday, Feb 6th, we forecast that VXX would close down today. We were wrong, one of the few times this year so far.

Today, Feb 7th, VXX closed up 0.97%.

We are unable to accurately forecast tomorrow's, Feb 8th, VXX close because 2011 data is too limited. There was only one day in 2011, Jan 21, that 2-digit qPath was 2.4 like today, and the next day VXX closed down. See blue 2011 data at the bottom on this chart:

%VXX vs %S&P 500 showing correlation
Click chart to enlarge




Monday, February 6, 2012, updated 8:15 PM

Our 2011 qPath data forecast on Friday, Feb 3rd, that VXX would close down today, Monday Feb 6.

You can see in the chart below for today that VXX did close 
down -0.96% 
as we forecast.

Our forecast is 
down for Tuesday Feb 7 too, as you can see from the 2011 data in blue at the chart bottom.

Click chart to enlarge



Friday, February 3, 2012, updated 5:10 PM

And today, Feb 3rd, VXX did close down as forecast using last year's qPath data you can see in the chart below
down -
5.52
% as we forecast:

Click chart to enlarge




Thursday, February 2, 2012

Quad Path history data for last year predicted 2/2 would close down — which it did, down 3.10%. 

Forecast is down for tomorrow, 2/3, too.

Click chart to enlarge




Wednesday, February 1, 2012

qPath data for last year predicted 2/1 would close down, which it did. Hey, we may be on a roll :)


Click chart to enlarge
 

To be continued



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