20121016 Aug



Fri, Aug 31, 2012 4:30 PM EDST new Aug 31

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for VXX close Tue Sep 4. We're still suffering a quad 2 hangover and will until Fri.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 31(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
3.1-111.8473.893123-3.613.212.862.92
3120.006.55041.640.95
31210.003.13021.570.51
312110.002.07012.070.00
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 31(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-185.61124.985341-3.503.052.542.73
3 days-91.5853.072619-3.522.791.862.89
4 days-46.2725.03117-4.213.582.173.74
5 days-24.6122.7355-4.924.552.244.04
6 days-4.272.9511-4.272.950.000.00


 


Thu, Aug 30, 2012 3:20 PM EDST new Aug 30

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for VXX close Fri Aug 31 are mixed.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 30(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
1.2-19.6321.6345-4.914.332.631.16
121-5.0910.0622-2.545.031.600.11
1211-5.090.0020-2.541.60
12113-4.150.0010-4.150.00
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 30(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-139.39200.794539-3.105.152.394.69
3 days-65.47102.781821-3.644.892.973.53
4 days-49.3863.001110-4.496.303.433.93
5 days-13.4951.8538-4.506.482.354.34
6 days0.0011.3033.770.65



Wed, Aug 29, 2012 2:10 PM EDST new Aug 29

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for VXX close Thu Aug 30. VXX closed UP today in dreaded quad 2. Frog says he's, "so tired of our quads 2 and 4 hangovers, we should go into quad rehab."

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 29(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2.1-29.1447.2395-3.249.451.518.93
211-9.093.5931-3.033.591.620.00
2113-0.860.0010-0.860.00
21131-0.860.0010-0.860.00
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 29(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-139.39200.794539-3.105.152.394.69
3 days-65.47100.971820-3.645.052.973.55
4 days-20.2437.97810-2.533.801.222.57
5 days-10.558.8653-2.112.950.992.17
6 days-3.923.7222-1.961.861.101.86

quads 1,2,3,4



Wed, Aug 29, 2012 9:05 AM EDST new Aug 29

We're forecasting that today Wed Aug 29 VXX will close DOWN.based on both our algorithms predicting DOWN.



Tue, Aug 28, 2012 4:10 PM EDST new Aug 28
Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for VXX close Wed Aug 29:

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 28(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
1.1-86.33104.212924-2.984.342.543.21
113-33.8346.901411-2.424.261.752.47
1131-21.8418.3464-3.644.591.612.63
11312-3.850.0010-3.850.00
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 28(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-139.39200.794539-3.105.152.394.69
3 days-73.9198.012718-2.745.441.825.74
4 days-40.4646.81128-3.375.851.616.04
5 days-13.6716.6754-2.734.170.702.79
6 days-6.950.9221-3.480.920.380.00

quads 1,2,3,4





Mon, Aug 27, 2012 4:10 PM EDST  new Aug 27

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for VXX close Tue Aug 28:

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 27(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
1.3-80.56111.983133-2.603.391.953.07
131-26.1051.84712-3.734.321.842.29
1312-5.155.6621-2.585.662.160.00
13121-4.740.0010-4.740.00
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 27(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-144.79139.284945-2.953.102.173.03
3 days-64.9189.732020-3.254.491.732.68
4 days-22.8649.7999-2.545.531.212.03
5 days-10.3918.7033-3.466.231.292.45
6 days-10.3915.1432-3.467.571.291.91

quads 1,2,3,4



Fri, Aug 24, 2012 12:36 PM EDST new Aug 24

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for VXX close Mon Aug 27 assuming it closes DOWN today in quad 3. Looks like Frog's dog gets some pretty lean breakfasts this weekend.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 24(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
3.1-111.8472.833122-3.613.312.862.95
3120.005.49031.831.03
31210.002.07012.070.00
312110.002.07012.070.00
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 24(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-185.61123.925340-3.503.102.542.74
3 days-91.5852.012618-3.522.891.862.94
4 days-46.2723.97116-4.213.992.173.89
5 days-24.6122.7355-4.924.552.244.04
6 days-4.272.9511-4.272.950.000.00



Thu, Aug 23, 2012 11:34 AM EDST new Aug 23

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for Fri Aug 24 VXX close assuming it closes up today in quad 1. We're in for three more days of a quad 2 hangover.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 23(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
1.2-15.4921.6335-5.164.332.991.16
121-0.9410.0612-0.945.030.000.11
1211-0.940.0010-0.940.00
121130.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 23(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-135.24198.114437-3.075.352.414.73
3 days-61.32100.971720-3.615.053.053.55
4 days-45.2363.001010-4.526.303.603.93
5 days-9.3451.8528-4.676.482.874.34
6 days-9.3440.5425-4.678.112.874.78





Wed, Aug 22, 2012 4:30 PM EDST new Aug 22

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for Thu Aug 23 VXX which closed up today in dreaded quad 2. We're in for four more days of a quad 2 hangover.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 22(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2.1-31.1745.43104-3.1211.361.489.03
211-9.083.5931-3.033.591.620.00
2113-0.860.0010-0.860.00
211330.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 22(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-135.20198.144437-3.075.362.414.73
3 days-61.31100.991720-3.615.053.053.55
4 days-16.0837.98710-2.303.801.132.57
5 days-5.5429.1227-2.774.161.302.64
6 days-4.0710.7913-4.073.60.001.95


quads 1,2,3,4


Tue, Aug 21, 2012 2:30 PM EDST new Aug 21

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for Wed Aug 22 VXX close below assuming VXX closes up today in quad 1

We assigned quad 1 to yesterday's close because S&P 500 actually closed down, 1418.13 vs 1418.16, even though the calculated 2-digit % close was zero and because we always add 0.001 to both %VXX and %S&P 500 closes to avoid nasty zeros.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 21(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
1.1-86.30103.362923-2.984.492.543.20
113-33.8146.041410-2.424.601.752.33
1133-5.6012.4243-1.404.141.231.45
113320.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 21(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-135.20198.144437-3.075.362.414.73
3 days-73.8997.152717-2.745.711.825.79
4 days-33.4450.34159-2.235.591.835.56
5 days-10.5131.0034-3.507.752.757.65
6 days0.0021.140210.579.41




Mon, Aug 20, 2012 4:00 PM EDST  new Aug 20

Frog just said, "Today's first ever Perfect ZED Mugwump Day." 
Both VXX and S&P 500 closed = 0.  

We're trying to figure out how to input into our algorithms a day that has no quads.

9 PM

OK, here's what we've finally come up with, all of which give no clear predictions for VXX close tomorrow Tue Aug 21.

First four charts are the qPath four possible quad closes  1,2,3,4:

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 20(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
1.3-80.56109.303132-2.603.421.953.12
133-45.4528.591911-2.392.601.973.90
1332-7.341.2531-2.451.251.130.00
13321-7.341.2531-2.451.251.130.00
qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 20(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2.3-19.6211.3775-2.802.271.561.60
233-5.7810.4524-2.892.611.281.62
23320.000.0000
233210.000.0000
qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 20(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
3.3-157.87132.085536-2.873.672.113.73
333-56.2246.832316-2.442.931.372.96
3332-6.580.9931-2.190.990.250.00
33321-1.960.9911-1.960.990.000.00
qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 20(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
4.3-57.1817.56174-3.364.391.984.40
433-43.0817.56124-3.594.392.134.40
43320.000.0000
433210.000.0000

Charts 5-6 are Mosconi Effect M-path predictions for the two possible choices 1,2 and 3,4:

M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 20(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-144.79136.604944-2.953.102.173.06
3 days-79.8846.882924-2.751.952.402.89
4 days-20.339.1287-2.541.301.731.42
5 days-9.731.7052-1.950.851.080.39
6 days-5.041.2521-2.521.251.520.00
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 20(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-267.43197.369053-2.973.722.083.68
3 days-133.20120.455238-2.563.171.703.15
4 days-53.1834.272512-2.132.861.422.92
5 days-18.9717.33108-1.902.170.982.08
6 days-11.485.9365-1.911.190.610.46


mugwump




Fri, Aug 17, 2012 2:00 PM EDST new Aug 17

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for Mon Aug 20 VXX close below.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 17(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
3.3-157.87132.085536-2.873.672.113.73
332-13.1516.2744-3.294.071.132.38
3321-8.2916.2724-4.154.070.832.38
332140.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 17(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-267.43197.369053-2.973.722.083.68
3 days-133.7976.913715-3.625.132.384.48
4 days-72.1530.64187-4.014.382.452.24
5 days-36.859.98113-3.353.332.632.19
6 days-20.493.5962-3.411.82.290.43




Thu, Aug 16, 2012 11:20 PM EDST new Aug 16

We're forecasting VXX will close DOWN tomorrow Fri Aug 17 even though our qPath algorithm data is limited.

Frog tells us, "Get off your duff and bank on your Mosconi Effect M-path algorithm predictions which have been far more right than wrong."

OK Frog, You've been far more right than we have :)


Thu, Aug 16 , 2012 6:30 PM EDST  new Aug 16

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for Fri Aug 17 VXX close below.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 16(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
3.2-21.7227.0498-2.413.381.642.33
321-18.2412.2063-3.044.071.673.17
32140.000.0000
321430.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 16(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-182.92123.925240-3.523.102.562.74
3 days-88.8952.012518-3.562.891.892.94
4 days-42.6228.041412-3.042.341.442.12
5 days-21.3612.6486-2.672.111.081.34
6 days-18.708.8574-2.672.211.161.29

quads 1,2,3,4


Wed, Aug 15, 2012 3:40 PM EDST new Aug 15

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for Thu Aug 16 VXX close below are like a dog's breakfast minus meat. VXX went bar-hopping today. Hung out in all the quads, especially dreaded quads 2 and 4. Ended the night in quad 2 with a massive quad 2 hangover that will last for 5 days!. This monster is out of control. Frog says, "VXX should go into volatility rehab."

No forecast for VXX close tomorrow Thu Aug 16, can't think straight with such a bummer hangover.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 15(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2.1-29.1445.4294-3.2411.361.519.03
2140.0019.980119.980.00
21430.000.0000
214330.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 15(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-133.19198.114337-3.105.352.444.73
3 days-71.8797.142617-2.765.711.855.79
4 days-31.4150.33149-2.245.591.895.56
5 days-20.9019.33115-1.903.871.391.47
6 days-7.7912.8263-1.304.270.811.63



Tue, Aug 14, 2012 3:30 PM EDST new Aug 14

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for Wed Aug 15 VXX close below.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 14(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
1.4-42.6013.63105-4.262.732.713.80
143-10.540.0020-5.274.95
1433-10.540.0020-5.274.95
14333-10.540.0020-5.274.95
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 14(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-144.79136.524943-2.953.172.173.06
3 days-79.8846.792923-2.752.032.402.92
4 days-59.5537.672116-2.842.352.613.33
5 days-44.0414.82169-2.751.652.620.98
6 days-9.154.4462-1.532.221.600.01



Tue, Aug 14 , 2012 8:45 AM EDST  new Aug 14

We are unable to again forecast VXX close for Tue Aug 14 because of limited qPath algorithm data in first table below due to VXX closing in dreaded quad 4 yesterday and dreaded quad 2 four days ago.

From the WSJ this morning:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down yesterday 38.52 points, or 0.3%, at 13169.43, while the S&P 500 index closed down 1.76 points, or 0.1%, to 1,404.11, snapping its longest winning run since December 2010.

If the markets this August feel like they're at their calmest level in years, that's because they are. Measured by the market's so-called fear gauge, the market is at its calmest point since the financial crisis started five years ago.

The CBOE's Volatility Index, the VIX, closed down more than 7% yesterday, at 13.70. That's the lowest level since June 2007, before the financial crisis even started, before the recession started, before the Panic of 2008. It's also right at the level the index averaged - 13.71 - from 2004 to 2006, a period during which the S&P 500 rose 28%.

The market these days resembles one of those old World War II movies, the silent moment before the battle, when some buck private leans over and whispers "It's quiet out there, Sarge," and the grizzled veteran, eyes firmly on the battlefield, says "too quiet."

Frog says,  "Market's most  out-on-a- shock- LIMB  when quietest. "

Big Bird, Black Bear, Black Swan and the Butterfly in Brazil say "Quiet's our dream-party." 

And, the Secret Emergency Meeting in NY I was invited and attended, "Assume we're in a lull before the Perfect Storm."

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for today's VXX close below. Please note algorithm predictions DOWN for all paths but the last qPath:

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for Tue Aug 14, 2012 VXX close below. Please note algorithm predictions predictions DOWN for all paths but the last qPath:

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 13(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
4.3-57.1812.08173-3.364.031.985.02
433-43.0812.08123-3.594.032.135.02
4333-30.0112.0873-4.294.031.745.02
433320.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 13(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-264.89191.888952-2.963.732.093.71
3 days-130.66114.975137-2.573.141.713.17
4 days-78.6580.702625-3.023.241.833.27
5 days-62.9425.39168-3.933.191.682.34
6 days-35.8818.04104-3.594.511.842.33



Fri, Aug 10, 2012 5:05 PM EDST new Aug 10

We are unable to forecast VXX close for Mon Aug 13 because of limited qPath algorithm data in first table below due to VXX closing in dreaded quad 2 three days ago

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for Mon Aug 13, 2012 VXX close are below.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 10(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
3.3-153.52132.085336-2.903.732.153.73
333-53.6846.832216-2.442.931.402.96
3332-4.040.9921-2.020.990.060.00
333230.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 10(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-263.09191.888852-2.963.732.103.71
3 days-130.66114.975137-2.573.141.713.17
4 days-50.6434.272412-2.102.921.452.92
5 days-31.6716.93144-2.264.231.693.74
6 days-9.1913.6552-1.846.821.473.79



Thu, Aug 9 , 2012 6:10 PM EDST  new Aug 9

We are unable to forecast VXX close for Fri Aug 10 because of non-existent qPath algorithm data in first table below due to VXX closing in dreaded quad 2 three days ago.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 9(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
3.3-153.52132.085336-2.903.732.153.73
332-11.3416.2734-3.784.070.852.38
33230.000.0000
332330.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 9(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-263.09191.888852-2.963.732.103.71
3 days-131.9976.913615-3.605.132.394.48
4 days-59.8346.27188-3.325.782.285.68
5 days-19.2739.3577-2.755.622.516.06
6 days-18.7515.5263-3.135.172.533.29

quads 1,2,3,4



Wed, Aug 8, 2012 6:30 PM EDST new Aug 8

We are unable to forecast VXX close for Thu Aug 9 because of no strong predictions by our algorithms 

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 8(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
3.2-21.0427.0488-2.633.151.622.33
3230.0010.65041.881.52
32330.002.71012.710.00
323340.002.71012.710.00
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 8(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-182.24123.925140-3.523.052.552.74
3 days-93.3571.912622-3.593.193.062.56
4 days-56.5257.121414-4.044.013.692.72
5 days-22.6944.48911-2.523.952.932.74
6 days-17.2830.4978-2.473.813.222.75

quads 1,2,3,4


Tue, Aug 7, 2012 5:00 PM EDST new Aug 7

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for Wed Aug 8 VXX close below. We've got a triple hangover since VXX closed UP today in dreaded quad 2. Quad 2,4 bad booze won't get flushed out until next week

So, we are unable to forecast VXX close for Wed Aug 8 because of non-existent qPath algorithm data in first table below due to VXX closing in dreaded quad 4 two days in a row and in quad 2 today. 


qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 7(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2.3-15.4511.3765-2.652.271.571.60
233-1.6010.4514-1.602.610.001.62
2334-1.602.5411-1.602.540.000.00
233440.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 7(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-140.62136.524843-2.953.102.183.06
3 days-75.7046.792823-2.722.002.432.92
4 days-55.3737.672016-2.802.332.663.33
5 days-39.8614.82159-2.661.652.680.98
6 days-4.984.4452-1.002.221.180.01


Tue, Aug 7 , 2012 8:00 AM EDST  new Aug 7

We're tired of living with a many-day dreaded quad 4 hangover. So we ran the numbers assuming quad 4 = quad 3. Since predictions of both our algorithms are fairly strong and consistent predicting today VXX will close DOWN, we're forecasting that today Tue Aug 7 will close DOWN.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 6(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
3.3-153.52129.055335-2.903.732.153.78
333-53.6846.832216-2.442.931.402.96
3333-15.4124.7348-3.853.090.842.79
33331-15.412.2241-3.852.220.840.00
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 6(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-253.95188.848651-2.963.732.083.74
3 days-128.36111.935036-2.573.141.733.21
4 days-78.6577.662624-3.023.241.833.34
5 days-62.9422.36167-3.933.191.682.50
6 days-27.064.3263-4.511.441.161.40


quads 1,2,3,4


Mon, Aug 6 , 2012 9:00 PM EDST  new Aug 6

We are unable to forecast VXX close for Tue Aug 7 because of non-existent qPath algorithm data in first table below due to VXX closing in dreaded quad 4 two days in a row. Our dreaded quad 4 hangover will last until Thu Aug 9 until quad 4 flushes from our qPath Algorithm.


Mon, Aug 6 , 2012 11:00 AM EDST   new Aug 6

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for Tue Aug 7 VXX close, assuming VXX closes DOWN today in quad 3.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 6(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
3.3-153.52129.055335-2.903.732.153.78
334-9.7423.4078-1.393.030.602.30
33440.000.0000
334410.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 6(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-253.95188.848651-2.963.732.083.74
3 days-128.36111.935036-2.573.141.733.21
4 days-78.6577.662624-3.023.241.833.34
5 days-62.9422.36167-3.933.191.682.50
6 days-27.064.3263-4.511.440.001.40

quads 1,2,3,4



Fri, Aug 3, 2012 9:30 PM EDST new Aug 3

Rarely do we recommend on this page that you go to an off-site page. But this email we received this morning — we watched the Market Wrap Up Video three times. You will not regret viewing it. He's the only guy talking like we've been talking— As Johnny Carson once said, "Great minds (pun) run in the same sewer" :) We'd be interested in hearing your reaction to the video in Comments.

Dear Traders and Investors,

This email has a lot of content. Please take your time and read through to the end because there's a lot in here for you.

"There was a 200-plus point swing in the market today on bad news, which makes little to no sense," says Matthew Buckley, WCI's Chief Investment Strategist.

In today's Market Wrap Up Video, Matthew talks about how he is selling into this rally and how this impacts potential further Fed easing. "While the media focuses on jobs created, we're missing the larger point that unemployment rose to 8.3% and that REAL unemployment grew to 15%."

He also discusses why to sell this rally because the past 5 Mondays have seen the market open down for the week.

Watch the Market Wrap Up Video below. 



Fri, Aug 3 , 2012 11:30 AM EDST  new Aug 3

We are unable to forecast VXX close for Mon Aug 6 because of non-existent qPath algorithm data due to VXX closing in dreaded quad 4 two days in a row, assuming VXX closes DOWN today in quad 3.


We've Got a Double Hangover  A single hangover is bad enough, but a double hangover is deadly. We've got a double hangover going into the weekend:

VXX closed down two days in a row in deadly quad 4, deadly because closes in quad 4 (and quad 2) are far less likely to occur than closes in quads 1 and 3 — meaning very limited, if any, quad 4 historical data for our qPath algorithm as you can see in our first table below.

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 3(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
3.4-43.2533.82169-2.703.761.903.64
3440.000.0000
34410.000.0000
344110.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 3(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-253.95188.848651-2.963.732.083.74
3 days-128.36111.935036-2.573.141.733.21
4 days-48.3334.272312-2.102.921.482.92
5 days-16.6617.3398-1.852.171.022.08
6 days-9.185.9355-1.841.190.640.46

quads 1,2,3,4




Thu, Aug 2 , 2012 5:00 PM EDST  new Aug 2

We are unable to forecast VXX close for Fri Aug 3 because of limited qPath algorithm data due to VXX closing in dreaded quad 4 two days in a row

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 2(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
4.40.0013.89043.472.14
4410.009.72024.862.10
44110.006.96016.960.00
441130.000.0000
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 2(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-253.95188.848651-2.963.732.083.74
3 days-125.1676.913515-3.605.132.374.48
4 days-65.3230.64177-3.914.382.422.24
5 days-30.029.98103-3.003.332.502.19
6 days-13.663.5952-2.731.81.870.43






Thu, Aug 2 , 2012 9:15 AM EDST  new Aug 2

Even though both our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms predictions below are DOWN for VXX close today, we are not making a forecast because VXX pre-market is trading way UP due to the man needing a mental (or cranial) lobotomy, Mr. Draghi, ECB.







Wed, Aug 1 , 2012 11:15 AM EDST  new Aug 1

Our qPath and Mosconi Effect M-path algorithms' predictions for Thu Aug 2 VXX close, assuming VXX closes DOWN today in quad 3

4:05 PM VXX actually closed DOWN today in dreaded quad 4, not quad 3:

qPath%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 1(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
4.1-35.6324.04910-3.502.402.032.45
411-29.493.8973-3.651.301.880.26
4113-11.162.3342-2.791.160.110.22
41133-5.520.0020-2.760.10
M-path%VXX
Days

Avg
StDevP
Aug 1(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)(-)(+)
2 days-179.91123.925040-3.523.052.572.74
3 days-86.5652.012418-3.432.891.912.94
4 days-40.2928.041312-3.102.341.482.12
5 days-19.0412.6476-2.722.111.151.34
6 days-16.388.8564-2.732.211.241.29