10/2018 - If You Build It, They Will Not Come - The Sequel

In March 2014, a Briefing Paper “If You Build It, They Will Not Come was published and presented to the California Senate’s Transportation and Housing Committee, and the California High Speed Rail Authority.  That paper can be found on this Web site in Section 3.2 – Briefing Papers – 2014 Plan.  See Subpage 1.

The Legislature took no action.

This 2018/2019 paper significantly expands those findings.  See the Press Release in Folder 1

Readers are urged to visit and study this paper’s foundations.  Review the MS Excel files, in Folder 2, that compute the Total Travel Time and Total Travel Cost competitiveness of high-speed rail (HSR), Auto and Air travel on 140 routes during 2029-2032 and 180 routes between 2033 and 2040 – the places where the California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) claims 14.4Million riders will come from in 2029 and 36.2Million in 2033.

Readers will also find Appendixes, which provide analysis and comparison of Amtrak’s Acela rail system to the CHSRA proposed HSR system, plus a validation of this paper's methodology using Amtrak data.  In addition, ‘Screen Shots’ are also provided that document both round-trip airfares used in each analysis, plus the Greyhound Bus fares used in this paper.  All of these led us to conclude that less than one-in-five of CHSRA’s 2018 forecasted riders (less than 20%) are likely to choose HSR over Auto or Air travel between 2029 and 2040.     


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