index

Author Index

 

 

 

IN PAGE ORDER

 

Ack        all xiv

 

Burton John W.  xiv,

De Reuck, Anthony V. S.  xxx

Nicholson, Michael  xiv

Cederman, Lars-Erik

Sarkees, Meredith Anne

Tirman, John

Ratuva, Steven

Ali, Altaf

 

Conflict Research Society (CRS)

values

world society

modelling

 

ch1

 

Chapter 1  see overview

overview  1-10

 

modelling  10-11

 

Values, World Society and Modelling.  2

Values, World Society and Modelling Yearbook, 2014.  11

Values, World Society and Modelling Yearbook, 2015.  12

Conflict, Complexity and Mathematical Social Science.  12

 

ch2

 

Chapter 2  see world society 2017  14-22 

 

world society in 2017  3, 14-22

                overview  3, 14

 

characterisation  14-16

headlines  16-17

everyday activities  17-18

links  21-22

one day’s news  18-20

 

ch3

 

Chapter 3  see rules in society  23-49

rules in society  3-5, 23-49

                overview  3-5, 23-24

Alabama election  24-25

 

sex grooming propensity  40-43

prison propensity  25-

offence comparisons  29-30

international comparisons  30-32

ethnic over-representation  32-33

error-free justice  33-35

 

differential policing 

UK  33-34

USA  35-37

 

prison, safety in  37, 38

sex grooming  37-43

modelling rules of society  43-48

links  49

 

prison propensity  25-43, 44-47

gender  24-25, 26, 28, 29-30, 37-43, 49

age  24-25, 26, 28-29, 37-43

ethnicity  24-25, 27-29, 32-34, 35-37, 37-38, 41-43, 49

religion  27-29, 37-38

 

 

modelling rules in society

signal detection  43-44

propensity  44-47

z-score  29-30, 45-46

prevalence  27, 47

encounter  37, 38, 47

differential treatment  34, 48

contour structure  31-32

 

Lammy Report  32-33

stop and search  33-34

disclosure of evidence  34-35

Charlottesville 

 

Ch4

 

Chapter 4  see UK politics 2017  50-83

UK politics 2017  50-83

                overview  5-6, 50-51

mass

gravity  see attraction

political space

 

headlines  51, 55-56, 59-61

the background 2010-2017  51-

opinion polls  53, 56-57

local elections  54

by-elections  55

exit poll  56-57

result  57-59

power allocation  57-58

aftermath  59-61

social groups

                voting  61-64

contour structure

                voting  64-65

percentage space  65-66

order function  66-67

                change  71

political space

                voter distribution  68

                                change  71-72

                flow

                                case 1  72-76

                                case 2  76-80

transition matrix  74

attraction  74-76, 77-80

voting change

                volatility  69-70

                distance  66, 70

voting trajectory models  81-82

links  82-83

 

ch5

 

Chapter 5  see power trajectories  84-106

 

power trajectories  84-106

                overview  6-7, 84-85

 

western dominance and eastern growth

 

continents  85-87

area  87-88

population  87-88

density  87-88

 

seas  85-87

Silk Road  85-86, 88-89, 95

 

polar ice cap  85-87

 

Western naval mastery  89-94

                Current levels  91-93

                US 1886-2016  93-94

China  89-94, 95

India  89-93, 96-97

Russia  90-93, 102-

                revolution 1917  102-103

                elections 1991-2016  103-105

 

USA  90-94, 105

UK  90-94, 96, 99-102

Pakistan  96-98

Bangladesh  96-98

Palestine  99-102

                population 100

Balfour Declaration  99-101

Middle East  99-102

Jerusalem  101-102

Israel  99-102

 

links 105-106

 

ch6

 

Chapter 6  see cultural trajectories  107-132

 

cultural trajectories  107-132

                overview  7-8, 107-108

 

culture  108

 

languages  111-113

 

religion  109-111

 

political culture  113-

monarchy  113-117

empire  113-117

republic  113-117

colonialism 123-124

democracy  117-120

dissatisfaction  117-121

freedom indices  118

human costs

                history and political culture  121-124

 

 

Barack Obama  125-126

 

Donald Trump  126-127,130

 

Xi Jinping  127-

 

ideas, partisan  124

 

Narendra Modi  120

 

religious and secular culture  130-131

 

what really matters

 

year 1517  109-110

year 1917  109-110

year 2017, calendar  108-109

 

links  132

 

ch7

 

Chapter   see value trajectories  133-159

 

value trajectories  133-159

                overview  8-9, 133-1

 

population  134-135

technology 

economy  135-

                IMF Annual Report  136-138

health  138-142

                and peace  142-143

development

 

peace

                conceptualising variables  143-145

                evidence  145-146

model  146-148

unit root  146-148

nuclear risk  149

 

environment  149-155

global warming  149-153

                revised estimates  150-151, 153-155

                radiation flows  151-153

                a simplified model   153

 

threats, perceptions of  155-159

                regional perceptions  157

correlations  157-158

 

links  159

 

Ch8

 

Chapter   see knowledge trajectories  160-180

 

knowledge trajectories  160-180

                overview  10, 160-1

 

Fermat’s Last Theorem  160-161, 166-

                early attempts  167-168

the final straight  174-177

 

Feit-Thompson Theorem  168, 172-173

 

Modularity  160-161

 

Wiles, Andrew  161-162

Atiyah, Michael  161-162

 

numbers,

all are interesting  162

school arithmetic  163

prime numbers 

basic ideas  163-166

 

year 2017, prime number  164-166

 

group theory  168-

                subgroups  171-173

 

fields  173-174

 

modularity  178-181

 

links  181

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ch1

 

Burt, Gordon

 

ch2

 

Burleigh, Michael  15

Dickens, Charles  15

Editorial  16

Wolff, Michael  16

Parfitt, Tom  16

Smith, Hannah Lucinda  16

Hosking, Patrick  17

ONS  17

Brindle, David  18

Trew, Bel  18

Philp, Catherine  18

Spencer, Richard  18

Deng, Boer  20

Karim, Fariha  20

Simpson, John  20, 21

Burgess, Kaya  21

The Times  21

Burgess, Kaya  21

The Times  21

Ames, Jonathan  21

Maguire, Patrick  21

Gibb, Frances  21

Macdonell, Hamish  21

Phillips, Melanie  21

Singh, Lord  21

Editorial  21

Philp, Catherine  21

Charter, David  21

Waterfield, Bruno  21

Smith, Hannah Lucinda  21

Philp, Catherine  21

Laing, Aislinn  21

Pavia, Will  21

Frean, Alexandra  21

 

 

Ch3

 

Blakely, Rhys  25

 

Allen, Grahame  25

 

Watson, Chris  25

 

Scottish Government  26

 

UK Government  29

 

Ministry of Justice  33

 

Bowcott, Owen  33

Dodd, Vikram  33

 

Green, David  33

 

HMICFRS  33

 

Simpson, John  34

 

Hamilton, Fiona  34

Wooler, Stephen  35

 

Manning, Peter  35

 

Stuart, Forrest  35

 

Bittner, Egon  35

 

Bittner, Egon  35

 

Holland, Gale  36

 

Dolan, Jack  36

Mather, Kate  36

 

Sharlet, Jeff  36

 

NPR Staff  36

 

Hoyle, Ben  37

 

Hoyle, Ben  37

 

Singh, Lord  37

 

Swerling, Gabriella  38

Norfolk, Andrew  38

 

Maguire, Patrick  38

Fisher, Lucy  38

 

Editorial  39

 

Berelowitz, Sue  39

Firmin, Carlene  39

Edwards, Gareth  39

Gulyurtlu, Sandra  39

 

Ch4

 

Chapter 4

 

Editorial  51, 52, 60

 

Burt, Gordon  52, 66, 69, 81

 

Elliott, Francis  51, 54, 60

 

Coates, Sam  51, 52, 54, 60

 

The Times  51, 54

 

HM Government  52

 

McGrath, Hannah  52

 

Wright, Oliver  53

 

Ford, Robert  54

 

Chorley, Matt  54

 

Parliament  55

 

Singh, Matt  57

 

BBC  58

 

Bush, Stephen  59

 

Maguire,  Patrick  59

 

Hennessy, Peter  59

 

Cabinet Office  59

 

Henry Zeffman  60

 

Tucker, Grant  60

 

Curtis, Chris  61

 

Lord Ashcroft Polls  77

 

Chapter 5

 

Pavia, Will  86

 

The Times  86

 

Total  86

 

Paull, Laline  87

 

Kennedy, Paul M  87, 89, 91

 

Pickering, Steve  87

 

United Nations  87

 

Unesco  88

 

Armstrong, Benjamin  89

 

Dreyer, Edward  89

 

Tweed, David  90, 93

 

Leung, Adrian  90, 93

 

Statistics Times  91

 

Worldometers  91

 

 

World Atlas  92

 

World by Map  92

 

Naval History and Heritage Command  93

 

Patton, Mike  93

 

Chase-Dunn, Christopher  93

 

Giem, Rebecca  93

 

Jorgenson, Andrew  93

 

Reifer, Thomas  93

 

Rogers, John  93

 

Lio, Shoon  93

 

Editorial  94

 

Infogram  94

 

Smith, Adam  94

 

China Daily  95

 

Smith, Hannah Lucinda  95

 

Kynge, James  95

 

Kyodo  95

 

Burt  96

 

Tomlinson, Hugh  96

 

Keith, Alexander  99

 

Muir, Diana  99

 

White, Ben  99

 

Pfeffer, Anshel  99

 

Editorial  99

 

Matter, Philip  100

 

Della Pergola, Sergio  100

 

Owen, E. Roger  101

 

Spencer, Richard  102

 

Philp, Catherine  102

 

Spencer, Richard  102

 

Pfeffer, Anshel  102

 

Deng, Boer  102

 

UN News Centre  102

 

Blakely, Rhys  102

 

Neville, Peter  102

 

Burleigh, Michael  105

 

Chapter 6

 

Blackburn, Bonnie  108

 

Holford-Strevens, Leofranc  108

 

Burt, 109

 

Parfitt, Tom  110

 

Doward, Jamie  110

 

Kington, Tom  111

 

Burgess, Kaya  111

 

Noack, Rick  111

 

Gamio, Lazaro  111

 

Cederman, Lars-Erik  113

 

Cederman, Lars-Erik  113

 

Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede  113

 

Wucherpfennig, Julian  113

 

Rengger, Nicholas  113

 

Friedman, Rebekka  113

 

Oskanian, Kevork  113

 

Pardo, Ramon Pacheco  113

 

Lagan, Bernard  114

 

Trump, Donald J.  114

 

Xi Jinping  114

 

Xi Jinping  116

 

Burt  114

 

Trump, Donald J.  116

 

Burleigh, Michael  117

 

Bush, George W.  117

 

Blakely, Rhys  117

 

Cohen, Nick  117

 

Levitsky, Steven  117

 

Ziblatt, Daniel  117

 

Diamond, Larry  117

 

The Editors, Journal of Democracy  117

 

Abramowitz, Michael J.  118

 

Burt,  118

 

Wike, Richard  119

 

Simmons, Katie  119

 

Stokes, Bruce  119

 

Fetterolf, Janell  119

 

Aaronovitch, David  119

 

Burt,  119

 

The Economist,  120

 

Rennger, Nicholas  121

 

Burt,  121

 

Dickens, Charles  121

 

Carter, Jimmy  121

 

Lagan, Bernard  122                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

 

Tang, Didi  122

 

Walker, Shaun  122

 

Chinese Communism Subject Archive  122

 

The Economist  123

 

Gilley, Bruce  123

 

Letters, The Times,  124

 

Bennett, Rosemary  124

 

Burt,  124

 

Westcott, Ben  124

 

Ratuva, Steven  125

 

Ratuva, Steven  125

 

Blakely, Rhys  126

 

The Associated Press  126

 

The New York Times  126

 

Deng, Boer  126

 

Jones, Callum  126

 

Trump, Donald J.  126

 

Brannen, Kate  127

 

Xi Jinping  127

 

Leader, The Economist  127

 

Rong, Zeng  128

 

Rawnsley, Gary  128

 

Xcvbn

 

Griffiths, Katherine  130

 

World Economic Forum  130

 

Elliott, Larry  130

 

Avruch, Kevin   132

 

Conway, Ed  132

 

Chapter 7

 

Pinker, Steven  133

 

Kenny, Charles  133

 

Bannerman, Lucy  133

 

Obama, Barack  133

 

Burt, Gordon  135

 

Engelman, Robert  135

 

Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid  135

 

Lusti-Narasimhan, Manjula  135

 

Burt, Gordon  135

 

IMF  136

 

Crafts, Nicholas  136

 

Conway, Ed  136

 

Baldwin, Richard  137

 

Conway,  137

 

Williamson, John  138

 

Stiglitz, Joseph E.  138

 

Aldrick, Philip  138

 

Business leader, The Observer,  138

 

GBD 2016 Mortality Collaborators  138

 

GBD 2016 Mortality Collaborators  139

 

GBD 2016 Causes of Death Collaborators  139

 

GBD 2016 Causes of Death Collaborators  141

 

Smyth, Chris  142

 

Tirman, John  142

 

Tirman, John  143

 

Pinker, Steven  143

 

Burt, 143

 

Burt,  143

 

Sarkees, Meredith Reid  146

 

Sarkees, Meredith Reid  146

 

Dixon, Jeffrey S.  146

 

Burt,  147

 

Renshaw, Eric  148

 

Evans, Michael  149

 

Parry, Richard Lloyd  149

 

De Groot, Gerard  149

 

Ellsberg, Daniel  149

 

Gore, Al  149

 

Poushter, Jacob  150

 

Manevich, Dorothy  150

 

Riley, Tess  150

 

Houghton, John  150

 

Webster, Ben  150

 

Houghton,  151

 

Houghton,  151

 

Millar, Richard J.  153

 

Nicholls, Zebedee R.  153

 

Friedlingstein, Pierre  153

 

Allen, Myles R.  153

 

Millar, Richard J.  154

 

Fugelstvedt, Jan S.  154

 

Friedlingstein, Pierre  154

 

Rogelj, Joeri  154

 

Grubb, Michael J.  154

 

Matthews, H. Damond  154                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

 

Skelie, Ragnhild B.  154

 

Forster, Piers M.  154

 

Frame, David J.  154

 

Allan, Myles R.  154

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Webster,  154

 

Webster, Ben  155

 

Cox, Peter M.  155

 

Huntingford, Chris  155

 

Williamson, Mark S.  155

 

Poushter and Manevich.  155

 

McKinney, Jared  159

 

Chapter 8

 

Zand, Hossein  160

 

Wilson, Robin  161

 

Wiles, Andrew  161

 

Singh, Simon  161

 

Atiyah, Michael  161

 

Linklater, Magnus  162

 

Mansfield, Daniel F.  166

 

Wildberger, Norman J.  166

 

Singh,  167, 168

 

Pace, Jonathan  168

 

Whipple, Tom  168

 

Wiles, Andrew  168

 

Feit, Walter  173

 

Thompson, John G.  173

 

Boston, Nigel  174

 

Daney, Charles  174

 

Darmon, Henri  174

 

Singh,  174

 

Taylor, Richard  174

 

Wiles, Andrew  174

 

Wiles, Andrew  174

 

Singh,  175

 

Wiles,  175

 

Daney,  176

 

Wiles,  176

 

Taylor  176

 

Wiles,  176

 

Singh,  177

 

Wiles,  177

 

Singh,  177

 

Wolfram Mathworld  177

 

Breuil, Christophe  177

 

Conrad, Brian  177

 

Diamond, Fred  177

 

Taylor, Richard  177

 

Conrad, Brian  177

 

Diamond, Fred  177

 

Taylor, Richard  177

 

Knapp, Anthony W.  177

 

Darmon,  178

 

Godemont, Roger  178

 

Eichler, Martin  178

 


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