World Cup 2018

VERSION 8       30 JULY 2018

Probability and the 2018 World Cup 2018
45 pages

1 Who will win the World Cup?

1.1 Our team!                                                                                                                4

1.2 The past, the best and the bets                                                                                4

1.3 The home team                                                                                                       5

1.4 The evidence: previous world cup winners                                                            5

1.5 What the evidence says about the reasons and the predictions                              6

2 The activity structure … the stages of the tournament                                              7

3 England: fluctuating performances, 1950-2014                                                        7

4 Qualifying: does 2014 predict 2018?                                                                        8

5 Pre-tournament predictions                                                                                     10

5.1 FIFA rankings, betting-based probabilities and Finkelstein probabilities            10

5.2 Using a Monte Carlo simulation - computer modelling                                       13

5.3 Simulation and the World Cup, 1966 – a personal note                                       15

5.4 Predicting the full set of results                                                                            15

6 The group stage                                                                                                       18

6.1 The first 16 games                                                                                                18

            The performance of the predictors

6.2 The second 16 games                                                                                            21

            At the end of the second 16 games

            The performance of the predictors

6.3 The third 16 games                                                                                               25

6.4 The final results of the group stage                                                                      27

6.5 The performance of the predictors in the group stage                                          29

6.6 Revisiting some of the other reasons and predictions                                          33

7 The knockout stage and winning the cup                                                                34

7.1 Updated predictions                                                                                             34

7.2 The round of 16                                                                                                    36

7.3 The quarterfinals                                                                                                   37

7.4 Updated predictions for the semi-finals and the final                                          38

7.5 England: an ‘easier’ path?                                                                                    39

7.6 The semi-finals                                                                                                     39

7.7 Third place and the final                                                                                       40

7.8 The performance of the predictors                                                                       42

Appendix: The 32 teams; the results … the group stage … the knockout stage        44

See VERSION 8 file below

ĉ
Gordon Burt,
1 Aug 2018, 10:15
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