Probability and Strictly Come Dancing

Version 1: Saturday 8 September

Gordon Burt gordonjburt@gmail.com

This is the first version of the report and it will be updated as the competition progresses.


Strictly Come Dancing is a dancing competition which has been running every year since 2003 and is broadcast by the BBC.

This evening, Saturday 8th September, the 2018 competition will be launched. There are fifteen celebrities taking part, each dancing with a professional dancer:

With 15 competitors, the average chance of winning is 1/15=8.3%.

This morning William Hill is offering the following odds for winning. Ashley Roberts is favourite followed by Vick Hope. There are a lot of dancers with middling chances and one with almost no chance, namely Susannah Constantine.

Ashley Roberts 3/1
Vick Hope 5/1
Danny John-Jules 7/1
Stacey Dooley 8/1
Charles Venn 10/1
Faye Tozer 10/1
Joe Sugg 10/1
Lee Ryan 10/1
Katie Piper 14/1
Lauren Steadman 14/1
Graeme Swann 20/1
Kate Silverton 20/1
Ranj Singh 20/1
Seann Walsh 25/1
Susannah Constantine 40/1