Dancing

Probability and Strictly Come Dancing

Version 1: Saturday 8 September

Gordon Burt gordonjburt@gmail.com

This is the first version of the report and it will be updated as the competition progresses.

Introduction

Strictly Come Dancing is a dancing competition which has been running every year since 2003 and is broadcast by the BBC.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006m8dq

This evening, Saturday 8th September, the 2018 competition will be launched. There are fifteen celebrities taking part, each dancing with a professional dancer:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/profiles/2VblgVSkVQ7vTYRV14KJvwq/celebrities

With 15 competitors, the average chance of winning is 1/15=8.3%.

This morning William Hill is offering the following odds for winning. Ashley Roberts is favourite followed by Vick Hope. There are a lot of dancers with middling chances and one with almost no chance, namely Susannah Constantine.
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/13326550/Strictly+Come+Dancing+2018+-+Winner.html

Ashley Roberts 3/1
Vick Hope 5/1
Danny John-Jules 7/1
Stacey Dooley 8/1
Charles Venn 10/1
Faye Tozer 10/1
Joe Sugg 10/1
Lee Ryan 10/1
Katie Piper 14/1
Lauren Steadman 14/1
Graeme Swann 20/1
Kate Silverton 20/1
Ranj Singh 20/1
Seann Walsh 25/1
Susannah Constantine 40/1
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