Brexit countdown

Opinion stays much the same?

Remain, Leave

Remain 48%; Leave 52% (2016 referendum)
Remain 53%; Leave 47% (recent opinion polls)
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/

Group A 51%
Group B 46% ... 4th Sept on: (49, 45, 46, 46, 48, 45, 44, 46, 46; 42, 51, 43;; 47, 42, 51, 44;; 44, 47, 43;;)
[other 0% to 5%].
Group A: Labour, LibDem, Green, SNP, PC, Change;
Group B: Conservative, Brexit, UKIP
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/09/03/voting-intention-con-35-lab-25-lib-dem-16-brex-11-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summaries.

Brexit polarisation
Two main parties (ambivalent about Brexit)
58% ... 4th Sept on (60, 58, 53, 59, 56, 59, 59, 62, 55;; 55, 62;; 57, 53, 56, 59, 53;; 54, 55, 51)
82% ... in 8 June 2017 general election 

Respect
“Irrespective of whether or not I voted to leave the EU, the 2016 referendum result should be respected.”
Agree 54%; Disagree 25%; Don’t Know 21%. (ComRes, Daily Telegraph, 11 September 2019: 7).

Conservative, Labour (last six polls)
Conservative 32 (27-37)
Labour 24.5 (22-27)

Updated 27 September 2019

EARLIER
Brexit with Boris? July 2019

July 30, Tuesday
PM pledges to make Brexit a success for farmers 
Sterling slumps amid fears of no-deal Brexit … two-year low … Johnson vows to go ‘extra thousand miles’ to strike deal with EU

July 29, Monday
Is anybody ready for No Deal? UK? EU? Ireland?
Gove: No Deal Brexit now ‘assumed’ by government
£300m to shore up the union
£100m Brexit ad campaign

July 28, Sunday
Sajiv Javeed’s blitz to prepare for No Deal
Ex-chancellor plots with Labour to kill No Deal Brexit

July 27, Saturday
Johnson to woo Labour voters with £2bn fund
Rees-Mogg dares Remainer rebels to revoke Article 50

July 26, Friday
Johnson turns up the heat on Europe
Tory right’s anger over senior aide to JohnsonJuly 25
Boris Johnson begins his first full day as the UK's new prime minister
His new cabinet will meet for the first time on Thursday morning
He will then make a statement to MPs in the House of Commons and continue appointing his junior ministers
Sajid Javid is chancellor, Priti Patel home secretary and Dominic Raab foreign secretary
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news 

July 24
Theresa May takes her last Prime Minister’s Question Time, gives her resignation to the Queen and gives a speech outside Number 10 and then leaves.
Boris Johnson accepts the Queen’s invitation and becomes 55th prime minister.
He gives an assertive speech outside Number 10.
He loses half Mrs May’s cabinet: they resign or he sacks them.

July 23
Boris Johnson becomes Conservative party leader.
He gains 67% of party members votes, defeating Jeremy Hunt.
He says “DUDE”:
Deliver Brexit.
Unite the country.
Defeat Jeremy Corbyn.
Energise our country.

EARLIER: up to June 2019

Today/yesterday
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs/the_papers
Brexit referendum 2016: Remain 48%; Leave 52%
Brexit, opinion polls 2018-9; Latest: Remain 53%; Leave 47%
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/
UK parties, opinion polls
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summaries.
John Curtice 
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/author/johncurtice/

April/May/June 2019
Newport by-election, local elections, European elections, Peterborough by-election;
New parties: TIG/Change; Brexit.
Strengthening parties: Brexit, Lib Dem
Weakening parties: Cons, Labour
Leadership elections/changes: Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Change

Visit by US president Donald Trump
[In bold: week ending 7 June 2019.]
European elections
April 13 - May 2019
Today/yesterday
Key points
January to March 2019
Daily diary
(see below)

My papers on Brexit:
https://sites.google.com/site/gordonburtmathsocsci/central

European elections

Remain parties 40.4
Leave parties 34.9

Remain + Labour = 54.5
Leave + Cons = 44.0

2014-2019 swing from Leave to Remain parties = 15%

Later in May 2019
Lib Dems do well in local elections
Mrs May says she will depart party leadership on June 7
European elections: see above

April 13 - May 9, 2019
Front-page headlines 

April
13 Johnson to snub ‘preposterous’EU poll amid threat of wipeout, 8-9
14 Corbyn told: back a public vote or lose Remainers, Obs
15 Leadership rivals urge PM to stay for months
16 Tories face Europe poll disaster as hopefuls flock to fledgling party, 16-17
17 Only Farage can save us from this mess, says EU chief
18 Farage party on course for EU election victory
19 Queen’s Speech plans rile Tories desperate for May to leave No 10, 10-11
20 CIA warning over Huawei
21 Labour’s fudge on Brexit a gift to Farage, says Corbyn deputy, Obs
22 Easter Day bombings kill 200 in Sri Lanka
Angry Tory donors back MPs against May
23 Families destroyed by bombers (Sri Lanka)
24 Teenager inspires Britain to act on climate change
25 Using Chinese tech won’t wreck relationship, says Washington, 6-7
26 May is risking public’s faith in politics, warns poll watchdog, 8-9
27 It’s not only MPS split on Brexit, 9
28 Corbyn launches bid to declare a national climate emergency, Obs
29 May to delay Queen’s Speech by clogging up Commons with bills, 8-9
30 Don’t mention Brexit! Tories fear enraging voters at the local polls 

May
1 Corbyn beats Watson in battle over second Brexit referendum, 8-9
2 Williamson sacked by May over Huawei leak
3 PM warned Williamson will have his revenge for being sacked
4 Shattered Tories tell May to set exit date
4 Tories suffer worst loss since 1995, DTel
5 Anger grows at May-Corbyn bid to stitch up Brexit deal, Obs 6 Don’t cave into Labour on Brexit, Tories tell May

Today/yesterday
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs/the_papers

Week 15 Looking ahead to local and European elections … Conservative leadership moves 
Wednesday 17 April 2019

Week 14 A longer time horizon
The EU provided an extension to the Brexit deadline: 30 October 2019. In one sense this eases the extreme time pressure of the past few weeks when first March 29 and then April 12 deadlines loomed with the threat of No Deal.
Many Conservatives were angry at the longer extension.
Meanwhile May-Corbyn talks continued this week and are planned to continue.
Also a rather different deadline now exists, namely to agree a deal in time to avoid having to contest the European elections.
And only a few weeks away are the local elections.
Conservatives and Labour are not anticipated to do well in these elections.

Week 13 May-Corbyn talks

Tuesday 2 April 2019
May-Corbyn talks
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47794235

Monday 1 April 2019
MPs will take part in a second round of votes on alternative Brexit proposals.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47767627

Wednesday 27 March 2019
Theresa May vows to stand down after deal is passed
Options to vote:
No Deal
Permanent Customs Union
Norway
Labour
Revoke Article 50
Canada-style trade deal
Second referendum
Malthouse

Tuesday 26 March 2019
Fearful Brexiteers swing behind May
Corbyn ready to whip Labour into backing softest of Brexits
MPs take the lead but it’s into uncharted territory
Brussels leaders heap praise on Commons for ‘real revolt’

Monday 25 March 2019
Cabinet meets amid pressure on May
PM to make a statement in Commons
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47689415
Brexit amendments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47693305

Saturday 23 March 2019
A million march through London to stop Brexit

Key points
The UK is due to leave the EU at 23:00 GMT on Friday 29 March 2019, when the two-year time limit on withdrawal negotiations enforced by the Article 50 process expires.

Brexit referendum 2016: Remain 48%; Leave 52%
Brexit, opinion polls 2018-9; Latest: Remain 53%; Leave 47%
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/
Economic impact of May’s Brexit deal, NIESR report
https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/economic-effects-government%E2%80%99s-proposed-brexit-deal
UK parties, opinion polls
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summaries.
Hansard Divisions
https://hansard.parliament.uk/search/Divisions?house=commons

                                                                                    

Daily diary

Week 13 A third vote?

Monday 26 March 2019
Cabinet meets amid pressure on May
PM to make a statement in Commons
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47689415
Brexit amendments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47693305

Saturday 24 March 2019
A million march through London to stop Brexit

Week 12 
An extension is granted

Thursday 21 March 2019 
Mrs May goes to Brussels to ask EU for an extension of Article 50. 
After eight hours of talks, EU leaders offered to delay Brexit until 22 May if MPs approve Mrs May's deal next week.
If they do not approve it, the delay will be shorter - until 12 April - at which point the UK must set out its next steps or leave without a deal.

Wednesday 20 March 2019
Prime Minister blames parliament and identifies with the people..

Monday 18 March 2019 
Mrs May had been planning to bring her deal back to the Commons this week for a third time. However Speaker John Bercow has said 
that the rules of the Commons say the same motion can not be brought back for a second time.

January to March 2019
1 An optimistic majority???
2 A foretaste of what was to come
3 A crushing defeat
4 Impasse
5 Parliament approves Brady’s amendment
6 A special place in hell
7 Three defeats: Labour, SNP and the government
8 The Independent Group
9 A voting schedule
10 The week before the votes
11 The crucial three votes
12 A short extension is granted
13 A third vote?
14 A longer time horizon

Week 11 The crucial three votes

Friday 15 March 2019 
Talks with DUP continue 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47586694

Thursday 14 March 2019 
Extend article 50: For 412, Against 202
Theresa May will make a third attempt to get her EU withdrawal deal through Parliament in the next week.  
She told MPs that if her deal fails again to get their backing, a lengthy delay to Brexit may be needed. 
The prime minister's warning comes ahead of a Commons vote later on whether to ask the EU for permission to delay Brexit beyond 29 March. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47564793

Wednesday 13 March 2019 
Government defeated – it wanted to keep No Deal on the table. Four important Cabinet abstainers. 
*No Deal ruled out under any circumstances: For 312; Against 308. 
Malthouse amendment: For 164; Against 374. 
No Deal ruled out on 29 March + *amendment: 321 For; 308 Against.

Tuesday 12 March 2019 
May defeated for a second time: 
Theresa May’s Deal: 242 For; 391 Against; 38% v 62%. 
(The first time: Theresa May’s Deal: 202 For; 432 Against; 32% v 68%.)
  
For the second time, a Brexit paradox: a crushing defeat of the best option? 
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxnb3Jkb25idXJ0bWF0aHNvY3NjaXxneDoxZjllM2JkMzIyNjk2ZDY4 

MPs will vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal later after she secured "legally binding" changes to it following last-minute talks with the EU in Strasbourg. 

Monday 11 March 2019

Brexit talks deadlocked day before Commons vote on May’s deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47519637

Week 10, The week before the votes

Sunday 10 March 2019
Minister rejects ‘May should quit’ reports
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47517394

Friday 8 March 2019

BBC Newsnight asked three pundits - Iain Dale, Rachel Cunliffe, Paul Mason - to give their predictions. All three agreed that the first two motions would fail and the third pass. So MPs would vote for an extension of Article 50. What would happen next? The pundits offered quite different futures, some quite chaotic. [EU approves, EU does not, another meaningful vote … possibly last-minute, short or long extension, another referendum, May quits as PM, leadership election, general election, what May does with extension, further discussion with EU, EU moves, EU elections … Brexit as election issue, Eurozone country elections, EU rethinks Europe, Norway, government collapses within itself, Cabinet collapses, public bored but much exercised, betrayal if no leave on 29 March, other non-Brexit issues, “we are about to enter the most exciting four weeks in politics that we have ever seen”] 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIjVhIpK4Zk

Thursday 7 March 2019
EU calls for fresh proposals for backstop by Friday
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47476942
Corbyn ‘reaches out’ to Tory MPs over Norway plan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47477869

Wednesday 6 March 2019
Talks between UK ministers and the EU, difficult.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47470382
Unions sceptical of May’s offer of workers’ rights.
Anti-semitism issue continues.

Tuesday 5 March 2019
UK in further push for deal with EU
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47449853
Scotland and Wales debate: oppose May’s Deal and No Deal and support Extend
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47447176

Monday 4 March 2019
May announces a £1.6 billion fund for struggling communities – mainly Labour-help constituencies. Is it a bribe to their MPs to vote for their deal? Is it unfair to other areas? Is it not enough?
“Your deal must pass three tests, Tory Brexiteers tell May”
Differing appraisals of May.

The past week: A voting schedule
Monday 25 February to Friday 1 March
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxnb3Jkb25idXJ0bWF0aHNvY3NjaXxneDoyMmY5YmEwYTg5OWE3Mzkx
? May loses and No Deal wins, despite … ? … ???
[To prevent this it may be necessary for MPs to vote for an Extension even if it is not their first preference.]
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxnb3Jkb25idXJ0bWF0aHNvY3NjaXxneDo0ZDM3ZjE1MzhkYzk5MTRl

Weeks 1 to 9
January to March 2019
1 An optimistic majority???
2 A foretaste of what was to come
3 A crushing defeat
4 Impasse
5 Parliament approves Brady’s amendment
6 A special place in hell
7 Three defeats: Labour, SNP and the government
8 The Independent Group
9 A voting schedule
10 The week before the votes
[11 The crucial three votes]

Sunday 3 March 2019

May targets Labour MPs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47435565
Fox welcomes Brexiteers’ approach
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47432429
Tony Blair … second referendum
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/03/europe-can-only-give-us-more-time-if-we-have-a-clear-brexit-plan

Saturday 2 March 2019

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/luciana-berger-interview-corbyn-and-labours-antisemitism-crisis-crgdng6w6

Friday 1 March 2019

Mrs May approach to Brexit: damage limitation
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47414079
Disagreement in Labour Party about handling antisemitism
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47425319
Reasoning: anti-semitism and political space [YouGov poll, March 2018]
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxnb3Jkb25idXJ0bWF0aHNvY3NjaXxneDoyYzAzMDA3MzJmNDBiZTk0

Thursday 27 February 2019

Minister quits over Brexit delay: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47405261

Wednesday 27 February 2019

Labour Brexit plan, rejected 323 v 240
SNP rule out No Deal, rejected 324 v 288
Cooper-Letwin enshrines yesterday’s May’s conditional package, approved 502 v 20
Power to force extension vote, not put to a vote
EU citizens’ rights, accepted by government

Tuesday 26 February 2019

Labour threatens second referendum and Tory ministers threaten delay.
So Mrs May moves … MPs will vote:
March 12: May’s Deal
If not:
March 13: No Deal
If not:
March 14: extend Article 50 till June 29 (PM will then ask EU for this)
If not:
No Deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47373996

Monday 25 February 2019

Some Tory MPs suggest: delay Brexit till 23rd May.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47352446

Sunday 24 February 2019

May says MPs will have final vote by 12 March
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47348610
“On Wednesday, MPs will be able to put forward a range of amendments to show what direction they want Brexit to take.
The Speaker, John Bercow, will then decide which ones the Commons can vote on.
One amendment, tabled by Labour's Ms Cooper and Conservative Sir Oliver Letwin, would give Parliament the opportunity to delay Brexit and prevent a no-deal situation if there is no agreement with the EU by the middle of March.”
Mrs May said extending the process "doesn't solve the problem", adding: "Often people talk about the extension of Article 50 as if that will actually solve the issue.
"Of course it won't. It defers the point of decision. There comes a point where we need to make that decision."

Saturday 23 February 2019

Three ministers call for Article 50 extension if MPs do not vote for (revised?) May’s Deal next Wednesday – Greg Clark, Amber Rudd and David Gauke in Daily Mail.
Possible motion by MPs: Article 50 extension
Possible motion by MPs: approve deal subject to approval in a second referendum (and of necessity Article 50 extension)

Friday 22 February 2019

Ninth Labour MP quits: Ian Austin - NOT joining group
Warning of Tory no-deal rebellion
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47326675
Revoke Article 50, Paul Collier, The Spectator

Thursday 21 February 2019

Anguish: leaving … not feeling at home in the party.

UK regrets?: voting Leave; invoking Article 50; doing Withdrawal Agreement before Future Relationship … BUT
“when daylight has been shone on the reality of what the future relationship actually entails, when the trade-offs have been resolved and the losers on both sides publicly identified, who will ratify any Brexit deal?”
Nixon, Simon. “If Brexit is delayed, a new strategy is needed to make negotiations work.” The Times, February 21, 2019: 41.

Con Lab LibD Indep Other
41 33 10 na 17
38 28 7 14 15
-3 -5 -3 +14 -2
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/02/20/14-would-vote-independent-group
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/co2ku2ha2h/TheTimes_190219_VI_withTheIndependentGroup_w.pdf
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/zz37bx0uqp/TheTimes_190219_VI_Trackers_w.pdf

                                                                                    

January 1st to 10th (forward) - end of page
January 15th to date (backward) - immediately below

Wednesday 20 February 2019

Three female MPs leave Tory party
May in Brussels for more talks
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47292833
Eighth Labour MP quits (making four out of eight females)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47300832

Leaving parties … The Independent Group:
7 out of 11 party leavers are female - any significance in that? Most of ERG are men??? I don't know.
Antisemitism - mainly males? Anna Soubrey ... males outside parliament.
Antisocial behaviour: young males in prison. See Yearbook 2017.
The leavers say their party is being driven by the opposite wing in the party to theirs. The imminence of 29 March and possibly harder Brexit outcomes is making them act now. Political space:
Corbyn.... Watson...Labour leavers...Conservative leavers ...May...ERG
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Independent_Group

Economic impact
Japanese Brexit
https://www.autonews.com/blogs/hondas-uk-plant-closure-beginning-japanese-brexit

Delay
A number of options require extra time beyond March 29

Daley: a hard Brexit view
Stay in and wreck the EU, says Janet Daley in Sunday Telegraph
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/02/16/heading-great-brexit-trap-not-stay-wreck-eu-instead/

Monday 18 February 2019

Seven MPs leave Labour party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47278902
“… the end of the current party system.”
[Times, 16 Feb 2019, 31]
9 Party tensions: seven Labour MPs resign
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxnb3Jkb25idXJ0bWF0aHNvY3NjaXxneDoxYzQ4NDRiODQxODI3OWUw

Sunday 17 February 2019

May urges Tory MPs to unite and back deal …
… otherwise Remain or No Deal will happen
May’s middle option
Mrs May has repeatedly framed the situation as a choice between three options: her middle option, a hard Brexit and Remain. See Chequers plan, July 2018; May’s conference speech, October 2018; May’s deal, December 2018; meaningful vote, January 2019. See Brexit issues website link above.
UK middle option
UK prime ministers – Thatcher, Major, May - have repeatedly framed the situation as a choice between three options: their middle option, a Eurosceptic option and a Europhile option.

Thursday 14 February 2019

“MPs rejected a motion backing Mrs May’s EU plan” 

Hansard, record of UK parliament, House of Commons Divisions
https://hansard.parliament.uk/search/Divisions?house=commons

UK’s Withdrawal from the EU. Debate
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2019-02-14/debates/12CF0DAA-036D-47C9-BC84-669EB87C38D0/UK%E2%80%99SWithdrawalFromTheEU#division-23835

Ayes Noes
331 UK’s withdrawal from the EU306 322* Labour amendment defeated
332 UK’s withdrawal from the EU 93 315* SNP amendment defeated
333 UK’s withdrawal from the EU 258 303* Government motion defeated
. *wins

331 UK’s withdrawal from the EU 306 322* Labour amendment defeated
“requires by 27 February 2019 a Minister of the Crown either (a) to move another motion under Section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 or (b) to make a written statement declaring that there is no longer an agreement in principle in the negotiations with the European Union and to move no later than that date an amendable motion on how the Government proposes to proceed.”.
(Jeremy Corbyn. Labour)

332 UK’s withdrawal from the EU 93 315* SNP amendment defeated
“requires that a Minister of the Crown immediately begin negotiations with the European Council to extend the period specified under Article 50(3) of the Treaty on European Union by no fewer than three months from 29 March 2019, and bring forward an appropriate amendment to section 20 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 to facilitate this change.”.
(Ian Blackford, SNP)

333 UK’s withdrawal from the EU 258 303* Government motion defeated
“That this House welcomes the Prime Minister’s statement of 12 February 2019; reiterates its support for the approach to leaving the EU expressed by this House on 29 January 2019 and notes that discussions between the UK and the EU on the Northern Ireland backstop are ongoing. …
Today I will address issues raised by a certain number of my hon. and right hon. Friends who are concerned about whether this motion gives credence to the idea that the Government are taking no deal off the table.”
The Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union (Stephen Barclay)

Wednesday 13 February 2019

Olly Robbins suggests that, as the deadline approaches, MPs will be offered a choice of a revised deal or prolonging the discussion with the EU.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-02-12/exclusive-uk-chief-brexit-negotiator-olly-robbins-warns-mps-the-choice-is-mays-deal-or-extension/
February 12: Theresa May says she needs more time to get the changes MPs want.
January 29: Theresa May asks MPs for more time.
Yesterday’s Telegraph cartoon:
MP rushing out of his house in the morning: “Can’t be late. I’m needed. The tin can can’t kick itself down the road.”

Tuesday 12 February 2019 
There has been talk of a general election. 
Conservatives would win a majority (The Times) but … 
What do other polls say? How can it change (see 2017)? How accurate are the polls just before the election? 
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/conservatives-would-win-majority-if-election-held-today-yougovfinds-8sjmr2mv8 ; 
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ ; 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summaries.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works

Monday 11 February 2019

May and Corbyn set to hold further talks
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47192233 

Remain 54% Leave 46%, January 2019 
See also trajectory Feb 2018 to Jan 2019 
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/euref2-poll-of-polls/ 
a majority for Remain, by 8% … but many majorities (see above) … 
… the mean is just a little over the boundary into the Remain part of the continuum: 
Percentages: the mean in an underlying distribution in space

Saturday 9 February 2019

Labour plan can get majority – McDonnell.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47170369
All sorts of things might happen – or not:
Nigel Farage backs new Brexit party if Brexit doesn’t happen.
No-Deal ferry contract scrapped.
Irish unification poll if No Deal happens? No – Arlene Foster.

Friday 8 February 2019

The continuing round of meetings, today it is: 
Belfast: Ireland’s Varadkar meets Northern Ireland's five main political parties. 
Dublin: Theresa May meets Varadkar. 
Progress? … yesterday: 
“Did anything change? Not that much. But for Downing Street, this has not been a pointless stop-off in the almost never-ending Brexit adventure.” 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47166144 
EU's Guy Verhofstadt welcomes Jeremy Corbyn's offer to Theresa May 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47160625

Thursday 7 February 2019

Labour’s fresh offer to May.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47152035
“There's pretty much zero expectation that any real progress will be made on Thursday (today) when Theresa May comes back to Brussels looking for changes to the backstop - that fall-back guarantee written into the Brexit deal to keep the Irish border open … 
So - Mr Tusk's inflammatory comments aside - the intended EU message to Theresa May is: our door remains open. We are in listening mode but there is already a negotiated Brexit deal on the table. If you now want to make changes then it's up to you to ensure they are palatable both to the EU and to a comfortable majority of your MPs. 
And therein lies the prime minister's devilish dilemma.” 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-47152349  

Wednesday 6 February 2019

Donald Tusk: "I've been wondering what that special place in hell looks like, for those who promoted #Brexit, without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out safely."
Former UKIP leader, and now an independent MEP, Nigel Farage, tweeted back at Mr Tusk: "After Brexit we will be free of unelected, arrogant bullies like you and run our own country. Sounds more like heaven to me." 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47143135
Should these people be spending their time on tiny morsels of ideas like this and should we be spending time paying attention to it?

Tuesday 5 February 2019

May’s commitment to no hard border ‘unshakeable’ 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47123078 
Brexiteers reject EU concession on backstop.
Brexit and the Good Friday agreement, by Bakke and Rickard

Monday 4 February 2019

Nissan faces losing May’s £60m Brexit sweetener (p1) 
Backstop hardliners are ‘setting May up to fail’ 
Early election? No way, says Javid 
Experts blame Brexit on coalition austerity* 
Labour centrists planning to split from the party 
Germany hopes UK makes unlikely choice to remain 
[The Times, pp 1, 6-7]
*Brexit: austerity, immigration or globalisation, by Fetzer, Becker, Novy 
http://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/SMF-paper-austerity-immigration-or-globalisation-1.pdf (November 2018)

Sunday 3 February 2019

Voters will never forgive Tories for a no-deal disaster. [The Observer, pp. 6-7]
Opinium Poll:
https://www.opinium.co.uk/our-thinking/election-polling-centre/
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-30th-january-2019/
Binary question 1: No Deal 42%; delay and referendum 43%
Binary question 2: Remain 45%; May’s Deal 38%
I don't know what to conclude from this ...
... now you see why Peter Emerson argues against binary questions.
See my paper 

4 MPs voting: what best-method results might look like (20 January 2019)

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxnb3Jkb25idXJ0bWF0aHNvY3NjaXxneDo2YzY2MTRmYjhkY2M4NTZi

Saturday 2 February 2019

Only a Brexiteer will make Brussels blink, insists Raab
Whitehall ‘won’t cope’ with no-deal
We want out now and really don’t care how
[The Times, pp 8-9]

Wednesday 30 January 2019
EU continues to say No.
Mrs May talks to Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn.

Tuesday 29 January 2019
With Mrs May’s support, the UK parliament approves Brady’s amendment to Mrs May’s deal – the amendment calls for ‘alternative arrangements’ for the Irish backstop. The EU response to this is that the Withdrawal Agreement cannot be renegotiated.
Thus, previously, the EU and Mrs May had negotiated a deal but the UK parliament had said No; and now the UK parliament had said Yes to an amendment to Mrs May’s deal but the EU parliament had said No.
So …? The front page cartoon in the Daily Telegraph caught the situation rather well. Two MPs talking;
“You know what this means, don’t you?
No, I don’t know either.”

Friday 25 January 2019

Next Tuesday in House of Commons, 14 amendments:
Give parliament the power to extend Article 50 for up to a year
(Yvette Cooper and two former Tory cabinet ministers);
Hold back on second referendum
(lack of support without Labour frontbench)
[The Times, 25.1.19, 9]

Wednesday 23 January 2019

The impasse in the House of Commons

After the defeat of the Government’s proposed deal on Brexit on 15th January, there has been an impasse in the House of Commons with no agreement about how to proceed. What is it that would gain a majority in the House of Commons?
May’s plan B was to talk with MPS from all parties, but these talks made little progress.
May has returned to plan A, seeking slight modifications to her deal with a view to gaining support from the EU, the DUP and the Brexiteers in her own party.
Some are seeking a series of MPS votes on all the possible options with a view to identifying which option(s) might receive majority support.*
MPs are forming groups (some within a party, some between parties) around different options … with a view to forming a majority.
One option is for a second referendum.*
*See 

4 MPs voting: what best-method results might look like (20 January 2019)

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxnb3Jkb25idXJ0bWF0aHNvY3NjaXxneDo2YzY2MTRmYjhkY2M4NTZi


Saturday 19 January 2019

YouGov poll. Many of the results were suggestive of two solid cores of opinion, the first having around 48% of support and the second having around 38% of support, the first might be labelled ‘Remainers’ and the second ‘Leavers’.

The Remainers voted Remain in 2016 and now thought the 2016 decision to vote Leave was wrong. They would vote Remain today in a variety of circumstances against a variety of options. They support a second referendum.

About the same level of support, 48%                   About the same level of support, 38%

vote Remain today (48) vote Leave today (38)
wrong to vote Leave in 2016 (50) right to vote Leave in 2016 (40)
support second referendum (47) oppose second referendum (36)
vote Remain today (48) vote No Deal today (35)

vote Remain today (47)          CU* (7)                   vote No Deal today (33)

vote Remain today (47) May’s Deal (27)*
another vote different (49, 50) re-run (22, 23)

Brexit would be: worse, 46 38 37 41 44; better, 24 12 21 5 24.

May should resign 42%; stay 38%

Norway plus: sensible 26; bad 47

Customs Union but not single market: good 16; bad 57

Coates, Sam. “Latest poll shows record 12-point lead for Remain.” The Times, January 18, 2019: 7.

YouGov:https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/j09xvmg215/PeoplesVoteResults_190116_SnapPolling_w.pdf

Friday 18 January 2019

Collins, Philip. “A vote on every option is way out of this mess. If Theresa May were bold she would make MPs choose between all available Brexit outcomes – and hers might even win.

… Lots of people dislike her deal less than they dislike other options …”

The Times, January 18, 2019: 25.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-a-vote-on-every-option-is-way-out-of-this-mess-gg96vzhpf

Gordon writes: I agree. I am not so keen on the procedure Collins suggests: “candidates are gradually eliminated until a winner emerges”. The danger is that a compromise middle option would lose out to two polarised extremes.

The procedure I prefer is for voters to rank all the options … ‘1’ is best. The option with the lowest average ranking wins. (The Borda Count)

Wednesday 16 January 2019

May’s government wins vote of no confidence.

Tuesday 15 January 2019

3 Brexit paradox: crushing defeat of best option? (15 January 2019)

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxnb3Jkb25idXJ0bWF0aHNvY3NjaXxneDoxM2FhMDA4Y2JkYjg0ODE5

                                                                                   

The Year 2019

January 1st to 10th (forward)

Tuesday 1 January 2019

“May rings round EU leaders in bid to save her deal.” (T12)

Wednesday 2 January 2019

“Brexiteers can’t afford to bet on the WTO.” (T19)

Thursday 3 January 2019

“No 10 cools talk of backstop breakthrough as Brexit vote looms.” (T10)

“Grayling defends ferry deal for firm with no ships.” (T10)

Friday 4 January 2019

“No comfort for May in poll of Tory members.” (T9)

Saturday 5 January 2019

“May turns on the charm as party rebellion deepens.” (T8)

“Troops must be ready for Brexit chaos, says minister.” (T8)

Sunday 6 January 2019

Anna Soubry MP shouted down by protesters on TV

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46785941/brexit-anna-soubry-mp-shouted-down-by-protesters-on-tv

Brexit: The Uncivil war: “superficial, irresponsible TV”

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/jan/07/brexit-the-uncivil-war-review-superficial-irresponsible-tv-cumberbatch

Monday 7 January 2019

“May pins hope on getting EU to agree 2021 Brexit headline.” (T6)

“Labour still at odds over second vote.” (T6)

“Rival MPs find common cause in blocking ‘irresponsible’ no deal.” (T6)

Tuesday 8 January 2019

Government 296 Opposition & Rebels 303

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46803112

Newsnight: Anna Soubry issue; Commons vote; Rowan Atkinson; Daniel Finkelstein

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQqmd4y-CwQ

Wednesday 9 January 2019

Second Commons defeat for Theresa May in 24 hours

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46805269

Thursday 10 January 2019

“May seeks support of Labour MPs for deal.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46817503