Photo taken by Amélie Philibert

Professor of Economics and Data Science at University of Cambridge

Fellow at Trinity College Cambridge

Associate Editor at Economic Journal

CEPR and HCEO Affiliate

Research fields: Labor and Political Economy

Bio:

I am Professor of Economics and Data Science at the University of Cambridge. I am also a Fellow of Trinity College Cambridge, and a Research Affiliate at CEPR and HCEO. I work with complex datasets and applied methodologies, including machine learning and structural modelling. I have published in top Economics and Political Science journals, such as American Political Science Review, Journal of European Economic Association, and Journal of Public Economics. My work has been featured widely across the media including The Guardian, Washington Post, the Economist, the BBC, FAZ, and Der Spiegel. I am listed amongst the top 1% of Economists in terms of research output in the last ten years.

Conflict Forecast

We have developed a method that forecasts fatalities from outbreaks of armed political violence up to a year in advance. We use a combination of unsupervised and supervised machine learning to analyze more than 5 million news articles. The webpage illustrates how we do this visually. Using out method we have recently won the ViEWS conflict prediction competition.

We will update our page https://conflictforecast.org/ on a monthly basis to provide policymakers and researchers with quantitative armed conflict risk benchmarks. Our goal is to predict subtle outbreak risks in countries that don't have a recent conflict history which should, so we hope, help preventive efforts that don't rely on armed interventions.

Press coverage: La Vanguardia
Podcast: NOVAFRICA, MIT Technology Review (in German)
Recent presentation at Early Warning /Early Action Workshop by CIC at NYU

Policy work

The Peace Dividend of Power Sharing: Quantitative Evidence on the Reduction of Political Violence through Negotiation
with Hannes Mueller
For German Foreign Office

Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model
with Hannes Mueller and Alessandro Ruggieri
For Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office

Predicted battle deaths over the next 12 months

Covid Inequality Project

We have collected data using multiple survey waves across countries and are finding that the outbreak of COVID-19 is having a large and unequal impact on workers. Please find details about our work here: covidinequalityproject.com

Press coverage: Telegraph,Independendent, Mirage News, The Guardian, BBC Newsnight, voxeu.org, Wired, The Times, Washington Post, ... click here for more

Presentations for a broader audience: Mainz (in German)

Contact:

Faculty of Economics

Austin Robinson Building, Sidgwick Ave

Cambridge CB3 9DD, United Kingdom

Email: cr542 [a t] cam.ac.uk

Phone: +44 1223 335200