Research
Published Papers
Diagnostic Business Cycles, with Francesco Bianchi and Hikaru Saijo , The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 91, Issue 1, January 2024, Pages 129-162
Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: A Review, with Martin Schneider, Chapter in the Handbook on Economic Expectations
Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers, with Rosen Valchev, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 138, Issue 1, February 2023, Pages 313–362
Learning, Confidence, and Business Cycles, with Hikaru Saijo , Journal of Monetary Economics, January 2021, vol. 117, pp. 354-376
Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing under Demand Uncertainty, with Rosen Valchev and Nicolas Vincent, Econometrica, September 2020, vol. 88, no. 5, pp. 1899-1938
Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News, with Matthias Kehrig and Martin Schneider, Journal of Political Economy, October 2018, vol. 126, no. 5, pp. 2011-2071
- local copy; VOXEU column
Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle, with Francesco Bianchi and Martin Schneider, The Review of Economic Studies, April 2018, Volume 85 (2): 810–854
Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents’ Beliefs, with Francesco Bianchi, Review of Economic Dynamics, October 2017, vol 26, 113-139
Evidence for Relational Contracts in Sovereign Bank Lending, with Peter Benczur, Journal of the European Economic Association, April 2016, Vol. 14 (2): 375 - 404
- local copy; - online appendix
Comment on "Risk and Ambiguity in Models of Business Cycles" by David Backus, Axelle Ferriere and Stanley Zin, Journal of Monetary Economics, January 2015, Vol. 69: 64-69
Ambiguous Business Cycles, with Martin Schneider, American Economic Review, August 2014, 104: 2368-2399
- local copy; - nber wp version; - online appendix
Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2012, Vol. 4(3): 33-65
- local copy; - online appendix
Monetary Policy and Stock Market Booms, with Lawrence Christiano, Roberto Motto, Massimo Rostagno, 2010, in Macroeconomic Challenges: the Decade Ahead, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole Wyoming.
Working Papers
Learning Optimal Behavior Through Reasoning and Experiences, with Rosen Valchev
Preliminary and incomplete. A bounded rationality framework to study learning through both deliberative reasoning and accumulated experiences. We draw on and bridge insights from economics and reinforcement learning.
Smooth Diagnostic Expectations , with Francesco Bianchi and Hikaru Saijo
Introduces "smooth diagnosticity": agents over-react more to information when uncertainty is high. Explains stylized facts on over-reaction and over-confidence in surveys, and key features of business cycles.
Uncertainty or frictions? A quantitative model of scarce safe assets, with Pavel Krivenko and Martin Schneider
Asses quantitatively the role of uncertainty and frictions in accounting for secular changes in risk-free rate, equity premium and market leverage.
Resting working papers
Monetary Policy and Stock Market Boom-Bust Cycles, with Lawrence Christiano, Roberto Motto, Massimo Rostagno, 2008, European Central Bank Working Paper No. 955
Explore the dynamic effects of news about future technology in monetary models.